Battery Technology: Solid State Advances and Mineral Demand Coverage

A lithium-ion battery cell contains several critical minerals. The cathode typically uses lithium combined with one or more of cobalt, nickel, and manganese in varying ratios depending on the cell chemistry. Common cathode formulations include NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) and NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminium). The anode in conventional lithium-ion cells uses graphite. Battery technology advances, including higher-nickel cathodes and silicon anodes, are shifting the mineral mix and influencing demand for cobalt, nickel, graphite, and lithium at the extraction level.

Solid state batteries replace the liquid electrolyte in conventional lithium-ion cells with a solid material, typically a ceramic, glass, or polymer compound. This eliminates the flammability risk associated with liquid electrolytes, enables higher energy density, and allows the use of a lithium metal anode in place of graphite. The mineral implications are material: solid state designs reduce or eliminate cobalt requirements and may reduce graphite demand, while increasing demand for lithium and specific ceramic compounds used in the solid electrolyte layer.

Japan has the longest commercial track record in solid state battery research, with Toyota holding the largest patent portfolio globally and targeting vehicle applications from the mid-2020s. China's CATL, BYD, and SVOLT all have active solid state programmes. South Korea's Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solution have solid state development pipelines. In the United States, QuantumScape and Solid Power are among the better-capitalised specialist developers. Government investment programmes in the EU, Japan, and China are directing substantial funding toward solid state commercialisation.

Solid state batteries are generally expected to reduce or eliminate cobalt from the cathode chemistry. Conventional NMC and NCA lithium-ion cathodes require cobalt to stabilise the crystal structure and maintain capacity over charge cycles. Solid state cells using a lithium metal anode can achieve comparable stability without high cobalt content, enabling cathode chemistries that are cobalt-free or very low cobalt. If solid state technology achieves commercial scale, cobalt demand from the battery sector, which currently represents the majority of end-use consumption, could fall materially, with direct implications for cobalt prices and producers.

A gigafactory is a large-scale battery cell manufacturing facility, named for the gigawatt-hour scale of its annual production capacity. Tesla popularised the term with its Nevada facility, opened in 2016. Gigafactories matter for mining because each facility requires sustained supply of battery minerals at industrial scale. A single gigafactory producing 35 GWh per year requires thousands of tonnes of lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite annually. The global pipeline of announced gigafactory projects therefore represents a forward demand signal for battery metals that mining investors and commodity analysts track closely.