Aura Energy’s Tiris Study Shows US$500M Value as Uranium Mine Eyes December Go-Ahead
Key Takeaways
- Tiris delivers a US$500.3 million post-tax NPV, a 28% IRR and a 3.2-year payback at US$90/lb uranium, a price in line with the roughly US$89.7/lb spot.
- Even at US$70/lb, post-tax NPV holds at US$221.2 million, while the Ore Reserve-only case still returns about US$355.3 million over 18 years.
- C1 costs of US$32.53/lb and AISC of US$41.25/lb produce cash margins of 64% and 54%, driven by free-digging calcrete and a beneficiation step that rejects 88% of ore mass.
- The US$400 million funding package is unsecured, development capital has risen from US$230 million to US$349.8 million, and about 83% of output is uncontracted.
- FID is targeted for December 2026 after an 80 t pilot plant run in November and December, with first production by the end of 2028.
Aura Energy’s Tiris BFS delivers US$500.3 million post-tax NPV and targets FID in December 2026
Aura Energy released its Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) for the Tiris Uranium Project in Mauritania on 16 October 2026, showing a post-tax net present value (NPV) of US$500.3 million. That figure uses an 8% real discount rate, an ungeared basis and a 100% project basis at a uranium price of US$90/lb, with a post-tax IRR of 28% and a payback of 3.2 years from first production.
Aura’s attributable NPV is US$425.3 million, which is after the State’s 15% free-carried interest held by ANARPAM. A Final Investment Decision (FID) is targeted for December 2026, with first production by the end of 2028.
Philip Mitchell, Executive Chair
“Tiris is a simple, robust project. It will be Mauritania’s first uranium mine and opens a new uranium province.”
“And we can build Tiris in two years.”
Unless stated otherwise, all figures are on a 100% project basis, in real terms, at US$90/lb. Here is how the headline numbers stack up:
| Measure | BFS outcome |
|---|---|
| Post-tax NPV (8% real, 100% basis) | US$500.3M |
| Post-tax IRR | 28% |
| Payback from first production | 3.2 years |
| Life-of-mine free cash flow (undiscounted, ungeared) | US$1,479M |
| Development capital | US$349.8M |
The production profile behind those numbers:
- 46.1 Mlb of saleable U₃O₈ over a 26-year mine life, averaging 1.8 Mlb a year
- Average annual revenue of US$158 million
- Average annual EBITDA of US$93 million
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How low-cost is Tiris, and how sensitive is it to the uranium price?
The BFS puts the C1 cash cost (the cost of mining through to product delivered to market, excluding royalties) at US$32.53/lb. The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) is US$41.25/lb. At US$90/lb, that gives cash margins of 64% over C1 and 54% over AISC.
The base case price is in line with the spot price of about US$89.7/lb and below the long-term contract price of US$97/lb. The study sells all uncontracted production at the base case price, not at the higher contract prices.
Price is the biggest swing factor, and the study tests it from US$70/lb to US$120/lb:
| Uranium price (US$/lb U₃O₈) | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 | 110 | 120 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Post-tax NPV8 (US$M) | 221.2 | 361.1 | 500.3 | 638.5 | 776.6 | 914.6 |
| Post-tax IRR (%) | 17% | 23% | 28% | 32% | 37% | 41% |
| Payback (years) | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
For investors, the downside case matters as much as the upside. Even at US$70/lb, post-tax NPV is still US$221.2 million, so the project does not depend on a price spike to show value.
A second test strips out the uncertain material. The Competent Person’s mine plan using only Measured and Indicated resources (the Ore Reserve case) shows a post-tax NPV of about US$355.3 million over 18 years. Aura says this means Inferred Mineral Resources are not the determining factor in the project’s viability.
Costs have moved since the last update. Development capital rose from US$230 million (September 2024) to US$349.8 million, and operating costs are also higher. The source says these increases reflect “a higher level of engineering definition, not a change in the underlying Project”.
Why is Tiris technically simple?
The ore sits in shallow, flat-lying calcrete and is free-digging. That means no drilling, blasting, crushing or grinding, and a strip ratio (waste moved per tonne of ore) of 1.00:1.
The key step is beneficiation, which means upgrading the ore before the expensive chemistry begins. Ore is washed in a scrubber and passed through screens, and the uranium sits in the fine particles. Scrubbing and screening reject about 88% of the ore mass and lift the grade seven-fold to 1,697 ppm.
Overall recovery from mined ore to final product is 83.7%. Rejecting most of the rock early keeps the leach plant small and operating costs low, according to the announcement.
Two technologies from Clean TeQ Water (ASX: CNQ) sit in the flowsheet. ATA® dewatering separates liquids and solids after leaching, and moving bed ion exchange (MBIX) recovers the uranium. ATA has not yet been used at a commercial uranium operation, which is why the pilot plant matters before FID.
The resource base also grew:
- Ore Reserve: up 11% to 74.6 Mt at 227 ppm for 37.3 Mlb, from 33.6 Mlb previously
- Total Mineral Resource: 184 Mt at 225 ppm for 91.3 Mlb
One caution applies. 32.9% of ore tonnes in the production target are Inferred Mineral Resources, which carry a low level of geological confidence. Inferred material is under 12% of ore in the first five years.
The project’s approvals and credentials include:
- 30-year exploitation permits
- Executed Mining Conventions
- An approved Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA)
- Radiation authorisation from ARSN
Separately, the project’s 85% renewable power is planned to come via a power purchase agreement (PPA) with an independent power producer, which Aura expects to execute in Q1 2027.
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What is the funding path and what comes next before FID?
The study assumes US$400 million of funding. That comprises US$220 million of debt (US$170 million senior and US$50 million subordinated) and US$180 million of equity, royalties or other quasi-equity instruments.
Funding is not secured, and equity or quasi-equity funding is likely to dilute existing shareholders.
Discussions are non-binding. Aura is in advanced senior debt discussions with the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) for about US$150–170 million. On 2 June 2026 it also signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with a major international nuclear utility, with a commercial agreement targeted by 31 December 2026.
Under the base case, the minimum debt service coverage ratio is 2.23x and peak debt is 1.6x EBITDA.
On marketing, about 83% of expected annual output is uncontracted. The only currently effective long-term contract is with Curzon Uranium, covering 300,000 lb a year.
The next steps run on a tight schedule:
- November to December 2026: the Tiris Optimised Pilot Plant at Bir Moghrein operates, processing more than 80 t of ore
- December 2026: FID targeted
- From Q1 2027: construction over about two years
- By end of 2028: first ore
John Carr, President
“We are ready to move into execution. Engineering is complete, key permits are in place, and our owner’s team is on board. Once we make the investment decision, we can move to construction.”
The Mauritanian Government has voiced strong support for the project. Of the US$2,042 million of surplus cash flow, about US$903 million (44%) is expected to flow to the Government and local communities.
Aura will host an investor webcast on Monday 19 October 2026 at 3.30pm AEDT.
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