Mineral Resources Posts Record Profit as Brokers Eye 26% Upside

Mineral Resources posted $822 million in underlying net profit for FY26, an 831% surge from the prior year’s loss and the strongest result in the company’s 20-year ASX-listed history. Revenue hit $6.5 billion. The numbers are not a single-quarter windfall; they are the product of a multi-year capital programme that has now crossed into its cash-generation phase.

The result is anchored by one operational milestone above all others: the Onslow Iron project reaching its 35Mtpa nameplate capacity in August 2025 and sustaining it. Onslow was the single largest execution risk embedded in the Mineral Resources share price heading into FY26. That risk has now been resolved, and the financial consequence is visible in every line of the results.

Here is what the FY26 numbers tell you about where the earnings trajectory and broker price targets go from here, with UBS and Macquarie both sitting materially above the current share price of approximately $64.09.

How MIN’s earnings recovered from a prior-year loss to a historic high

The scale of the turnaround sits across five metrics, and none of them is a rounding error.

Revenue of $6.5 billion was up 44% year-on-year, driven by higher volumes across all three divisions and improved commodity prices. Underlying EBITDA reached $2.6 billion, a 183% increase, translating to a 39% margin. Underlying NPAT of $822 million reversed a prior-year loss entirely.

$822 million underlying NPAT, up 831% year-on-year, the strongest result in Mineral Resources’ 20-year ASX-listed history.

The reinstated dividend of $0.83 per share, fully franked, at a 20% payout ratio, carries its own signal. Management paid nothing the prior year. Resuming the dividend now tells the market that cash generation is viewed internally as durable, not temporary.

ASX mining dividends reinstated after a period of capital-intensive construction, as with Mineral Resources’ $0.83 per share payment at a 20% payout ratio, typically signal management confidence that cash generation is viewed as durable rather than a product of short-term commodity price conditions.

UBS noted that the company exceeded analyst forecasts across all major financial metrics. Liquidity stood at $2.4 billion. The combination of a 39% EBITDA margin, a reinstated dividend, and net debt at 1.7x EBITDA tells you the balance sheet inflection has arrived: the capital-intensive build phase is over and the cash-generation phase has begun.

Onslow Iron hits nameplate output: the earnings power unlocked at scale

Onslow Iron reached its nameplate capacity of 35Mtpa in August 2025, approximately three years after the Final Investment Decision. The run-rate was sustained through to at least October 2025, confirming the pit-to-port supply chain is working as designed.

FY26 attributable shipments came in at 19.7 million tonnes, exceeding upgraded guidance. FOB costs at Onslow sat at $52 per wet metric tonne, a cost base that provides substantial margin at current iron ore prices.

The 35Mtpa production milestone at Onslow was the defining execution test for Mineral Resources in FY26, with the August 2025 confirmation resolving the single largest operational uncertainty that had weighed on the company’s valuation through the construction phase.

Meeting the 35Mtpa condition also triggered a contingent $200 million payment from Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners, a factual consequence of hitting the nameplate threshold built into the original transaction terms.

With a planned mine life of more than 30 years, Onslow has transitioned from a construction project into a long-life, cash-generating asset.

What full capacity translates to in earnings

At realised iron ore prices around US$90-100 per tonne and a sustained 35Mtpa run-rate, Onslow Iron is positioned to contribute:

• More than A$400 million in annual EBITDA from mining services
• More than A$900 million from iron ore operations

Those figures make Onslow the single most important variable in the MIN earnings model. Any disruption to this run-rate would be material to the share price, and equally, sustained performance at nameplate is what underpins the broker targets discussed below.

Strong cash flows from full-capacity operations are expected to reduce group debt levels materially from the current 1.7x net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, providing a clear trajectory toward further deleveraging.

Lithium volumes surge and mining services scales: the two supporting pillars

The earnings recovery is not a single-asset story.

Mineral Resources’ lithium business delivered record sales volumes in FY26. In Q4 FY26, the company reported sales of 158,000 dry metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate (SC6), a 15% rise quarter-on-quarter, at a realised price of approximately US$2,425 per tonne. The volume momentum is real.

341 million tonnes mined in FY26, up 22% year-on-year and above upgraded guidance.

Mining services reached 341 million tonnes of ore mined, up 22% on the prior year and above upgraded guidance. This division provides fee-based earnings that are relatively more stable than the commodity-exposed segments, making it the most predictable contributor to group earnings.

The three divisions each carry a distinct earnings characteristic:

• Onslow Iron: volume and price-driven; the primary cash engine
• Lithium: high price leverage with strong volumes, but highly exposed to lithium price cycles
• Mining services: volume-driven with lower price sensitivity; the stability anchor

The lithium price cycle remains the most binary variable in the MIN earnings model; record spodumene volumes in FY26 demonstrate operational capability, but the division’s earnings contribution is almost entirely determined by where spot prices settle across the forward financial year.

That third point matters. The 22% mining services volume increase above guidance tells you this division is scaling independently of commodity prices, providing a partial earnings buffer if iron ore or lithium prices fall. Lithium volumes are strong, but any sustained price downturn would temper the contribution from that segment meaningfully.

Analyst price targets point to double-digit upside from current share price levels

At the time of the FY26 results release on 28 August 2026, UBS carried a 12-month price target of $76.00 per share on Mineral Resources, against a prevailing share price of approximately $64.09. Following a subsequent quarterly update, UBS lifted that target to approximately $81.

Macquarie separately reiterated a buy rating and lifted its price target to $76 per share, placing two major brokers at the same level on the initial post-results assessment.

At $64.09, UBS’s $76 target implies approximately 19% upside, with the post-quarterly revision to approximately $81 implying closer to 26%.

UBS identified Mineral Resources as one of three ASX-listed mining companies it expects to outperform the broader market over the following 12 months. A broker consensus clustered in the A$70-A$80 range against a mid-$60s share price suggests the market has not yet fully priced in the operational step-change at Onslow. That said, broker targets are built on assumptions about iron ore prices and sustained operational performance, and the conditions those targets require are worth examining directly.

What needs to go right for MIN to close the gap to broker targets

The FY26 result answers the question of what Mineral Resources has delivered. The forward question is whether it can sustain it. Five variables will determine the answer, ranked by earnings materiality:

1. Onslow sustained run-rate and FY27 guidance: continued operation at or near 35Mtpa is the primary variable. Any FY27 volume guidance update will be the first test of whether nameplate is a sustained reality or a peak-quarter achievement.
2. Iron ore price and margin: realised prices around US$90-100 per tonne at 80-90% benchmark realisation are the key earnings lever at Onslow. Any material move in iron ore prices flows directly to the bottom line.
3. Lithium market pricing: volumes are strong, but earnings leverage in the lithium division is almost entirely to price. A recovery would be a bonus; a prolonged downturn would weigh on the growth story.
4. Mining services contract pipeline: future contract wins or renewals will determine how stable and scalable this earnings stream remains if commodity prices become more volatile.
5. Capex commitments and balance sheet discipline: the group has historically pursued large growth projects. Monitoring capex versus cash generation against the 1.7x net debt-to-EBITDA baseline will determine whether the current healthy balance sheet position is maintained.

The first two watchpoints are not equally weighted with the other three. Onslow’s sustained run-rate and iron ore prices together determine whether the broker targets are achievable. Lithium price recovery would be additive, but it is not a base-case requirement for the re-rating thesis.

A new earnings floor or a one-year anomaly: what FY26 tells investors

The evidence assembled across the FY26 results, Onslow’s operational delivery, and the broker consensus points in one direction: this result looks structural rather than cyclical. A company that has completed a multi-year build programme, reached nameplate capacity on a 30-year mine life asset, reinstated its dividend, and improved leverage to 1.7x EBITDA is not describing a one-off rebound from a weak prior-year base.

Mineral Resources investment analysis covering the company’s three-division structure and historical capital allocation approach provides the baseline context for reading FY26’s numbers as a structural inflection rather than a rebound from an unusually weak prior-year comparison.

The investment case, however, remains tightly bound to commodity prices and sustained Onslow execution. FY27 volume guidance, iron ore price direction, and the pace of deleveraging are the three metrics that will determine whether FY26 is the start of a new earnings trajectory or a high watermark. With broker targets in the A$70-A$80 range and the share price near $64.09, the gap between market pricing and analyst expectations remains material.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Financial projections are subject to market conditions and various risk factors.