Carnaby Lifts Copper Resource 10% Ahead of Evolution Takeover

Carnaby Resources (ASX: CNB) has lifted its Greater Duchess copper-gold resource in Queensland by 10%, reporting a total inventory of 30.8 million tonnes at 1.6% copper-equivalent (CuEq) and 482,800 tonnes of contained copper-equivalent metal. The upgrade lands as the company moves toward a binding A$213 million acquisition by Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN).

The timing is not incidental. A larger resource base going into a scheme vote strengthens the strategic value of exactly what Evolution is buying, and the two developments are running in parallel: the resource grew in August 2026, the scheme was signed in July 2026, and implementation is targeted for mid-November. Each reinforces the case for the other.

For CNB shareholders weighing the all-scrip offer, and for anyone tracking Evolution’s copper growth strategy, the picture has shifted. What follows gives you a clear read on the revised resource, the deal terms, and why the Ernest Henry processing route matters to the project’s economics and its risk profile.

Trekelano drives a 47% resource surge that underpins the deal’s asset case

The headline number is 30.8 million tonnes at 1.3% copper and 0.3 g/t gold, or 1.6% CuEq, containing 482,800 tonnes of copper-equivalent metal. That breaks down to 415,000 tonnes of contained copper and 258,700 ounces of contained gold. Of the total, 303,500 tonnes CuEq sits in the Indicated category and 179,300 tonnes CuEq in the Inferred.

The engine behind the 10% uplift was the Trekelano deposit. Combining the Trek 1 and Trek 2 sub-deposits, Trekelano’s resource expanded 47% to 7.1 million tonnes at 1.8% CuEq, containing 132,000 tonnes CuEq. Infill, geotechnical, and metallurgical drilling through 2026 did the work.

Trek 1 carries the grade, but most of it is still Inferred

Trek 1 is where the grade lives. Its underground resource stands at 1 million tonnes at 3.5% CuEq (2.9% copper, 0.7 g/t gold), containing 35,100 tonnes CuEq. The Main Lode has now been delineated to 735 metres below surface.

The Footwall Lode grew in both directions:

• Lateral strike length extended from roughly 40 metres to 220 metres
• Down-dip depth extended from 280 metres to 440 metres

Trek 2 also advanced, growing 18% to 1.2 million tonnes at 1.2% CuEq and 15,400 tonnes CuEq. Infill drilling there reclassified a substantial proportion into the Indicated category, a precedent worth noting for what could happen at Trek 1.

Here is the part that matters for judging the deal. Around 86% of Trek 1’s resource is classified as Inferred, the lowest-confidence JORC category, which means it cannot yet feed into an Ore Reserve or a mine plan. The high-grade core is real upside, but it is optionality Evolution would still need to drill out, not value already locked in.

JORC resource classification distinguishes Inferred from Indicated and Measured tonnes in ways that directly affect whether a deposit can enter an Ore Reserve and support a mine plan, which is precisely why Trek 1’s 86% Inferred position limits its near-term contribution to the feasibility study.

What Evolution is paying and what the scheme timetable means for CNB shareholders

Under the binding Scheme Implementation Deed, Carnaby shareholders receive 0.0682 new Evolution shares for each CNB share. That works out to roughly A$0.77 to A$0.775 per Carnaby share and values the company at approximately A$213 million (around US$149 million) fully diluted.

The premium is where the deal gets its shape.

A 60.4% premium to last close The implied consideration sits 60.4% above Carnaby’s A$0.48 closing price on 24 July 2026, and 31.4% above the 30-day volume-weighted average price of A$0.59.

Because the consideration is all scrip, CNB holders do not walk away with cash. They become Evolution shareholders, swapping a single-asset copper development story for exposure to Evolution’s broader copper and gold portfolio. The read-through matters here: given Evolution’s own copper ambitions, those shares are in part an indirect proxy for the same Greater Duchess thesis, just held inside a larger, better-capitalised miner.

The clock is the other consideration. The indicative timetable runs:

1. First court hearing: mid-September 2026
2. Scheme booklet dispatch: mid-to-late September 2026
3. Scheme meeting: late October to early November 2026
4. Second court hearing: early November 2026
5. Implementation: targeted mid-November 2026

Directors holding roughly 7.3% of CNB shares have flagged their intention to vote in favour, subject to the independent expert’s conclusion and no superior proposal emerging. A bilateral termination fee of A$2.13 million applies to each party, signalling both sides have skin in seeing it through.

With the scheme meeting less than six weeks out, CNB shareholders need to form a view now: back the all-scrip deal, or take liquidity at the current implied price.

Ernest Henry as the processing solution that changes Greater Duchess’s capital equation

The most consequential piece of the deal is not on the balance sheet. It is a concentrator that already exists.

As part of the transaction, Carnaby’s existing tolling and offtake arrangements with Glencore will be terminated. Post-acquisition, Greater Duchess ore will instead be sold to Glencore under the current Ernest Henry offtake terms, plugging the project into an operating, permitted mine and processing plant.

Evolution has stated that Greater Duchess could add roughly 10,000 tonnes per annum of copper production at Ernest Henry using latent mill capacity. That is capacity already built, already permitted, already running.

Evolution’s acquisition of Carnaby sits within a broader copper-gold expansion strategy that the company outlined in mid-2026, covering capital allocation across its Cloncurry hub and a series of targeted bolt-on growth moves designed to lift group copper output.

The operational advantages stack up:

• Access to an existing, permitted mining and processing operation
• Latent mill capacity that absorbs Greater Duchess feed without new construction
• An offtake framework already in place with Glencore
• Established concentrate transport logistics for the region

The preferred route Carnaby managing director Rob Watkins has described the Evolution Mining acquisition as the preferred risk-adjusted development pathway for Greater Duchess.

Follow that logic and the capital equation reworks itself. A standalone Greater Duchess would need its own plant, its own permits, and its own offtake, each a source of cost and delay. Toll-processing through Ernest Henry removes that entire layer, positioning the project as a bolt-on feed source for Evolution’s Cloncurry copper hub rather than an isolated greenfield build.

For EVN investors, that is the crux of the return argument. Greater Duchess can potentially reach copper production without the full capital outlay a new processing facility would demand, which lifts the acquisition’s return profile, provided the pre-feasibility study (PFS) economics hold up under the definitive study Evolution intends to commission. For context, the PFS put the project’s post-tax net present value (NPV) at A$322 million at a 7% discount rate, an internal rate of return (IRR) of 281%, a 12-year mine life, and an Ore Reserve of 8.4 million tonnes at 1.9% CuEq. Those are PFS-level figures, and that distinction becomes the whole story in the next section.

What still needs to happen before Greater Duchess moves to production

Strip away the premium and the resource upgrade, and a sequence of unfinished business comes into view. The scheme has not completed. As of 20 September 2026, shareholder and court approvals remain pending.

The remaining scheme conditions run in order:

1. Carnaby shareholder approval at the scheme meeting (late October to early November 2026)
2. Regulatory clearance, including from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC)
3. Court approval, plus other standard scheme conditions

Beyond the deal itself, the project’s development milestones are still open:

• No definitive feasibility study (DFS) has been published. Evolution has flagged an updated feasibility study post-implementation, with no completion date or first-production year stated publicly.
• Roughly 86% of Trek 1 remains Inferred, so the high-grade underground zone cannot enter the Ore Reserve or mine plan until further drilling converts it. It stays a future optionality item, not a committed phase.
• A separate Trek 1 underground scoping study was planned for the second half of 2026. Its results had not been published as of 20 September 2026.

Resource estimate confidence levels also shape how the market prices a development story: Indicated tonnes carry higher certainty and can underpin reserves, while Inferred tonnes, like the bulk of Trek 1, represent a valuation discount that only further drilling can close.

PFS-level assumptions, not guarantees The A$322 million NPV and 281% IRR are pre-feasibility figures. Industry practice treats PFS studies as less certain than DFS-level work, and both are subject to revision once a full feasibility study is completed.

The current Ore Reserve of 8.4 million tonnes at 1.9% CuEq (around 164 kt CuEq) already excludes the Trek 1 underground contribution, precisely because that tonnage is not yet Indicated.

The gap between the PFS economics and where the project actually stands today, no DFS, no production date, most of the high-grade core still Inferred, is exactly where you should locate your risk assessment. It is the distance between what the numbers imply and what the drilling and approvals still have to confirm. For a CNB shareholder deciding how to vote, that gap is as material as the premium, because the alternative to the deal is a standalone development path carrying its own capital and timeline risk.

Where Greater Duchess fits in the copper development calculus after this week’s numbers

Three developments now sit on top of each other: a 10% resource upgrade to 30.8 million tonnes at 1.6% CuEq, an A$213 million all-scrip scheme heading toward a November vote, and an Ernest Henry processing route that reworks the project’s capital demands. Together they make a coherent case for the deal.

Greater Duchess is a substantive asset by any measure: a 12-year mine life, an 8.4 million tonne Ore Reserve, and a high-grade Trek 1 underground component at 3.5% CuEq that could add roughly 10,000 tonnes per annum of copper at Ernest Henry.

The optimism is earned, but it is not settled. Three variables will decide how this resolves:

• The outcome of the scheme vote, targeted for implementation in mid-November 2026
• The pace at which Trek 1’s Inferred tonnes convert to Indicated
• The findings of the feasibility study Evolution intends to commission

Whether you hold CNB or follow EVN’s copper growth thesis, those are the near-term events to watch. The premium, the infrastructure, and the enlarged resource build a clear value argument. The size of the gap between today’s PFS and tomorrow’s DFS is where the real due diligence still sits.

For investors tracking what Evolution intends to do with Greater Duchess post-acquisition, our deep-dive into Evolution’s FY27 exploration programme covers the $160M drill budget, reserve conversion targets, and how Cloncurry fits within the group’s copper growth pipeline.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Financial projections are subject to market conditions and various risk factors, and forward-looking statements are speculative and subject to change based on market developments and company performance.