Elevra Lithium PFS Eyes 373ktpa Output and C$3.2B NPV at Quebec Mine
Key Takeaways
- The NAL Expansion PFS confirms a full-project post-tax NPV (8%) of C$3,218M (US$2,384M) and a 49.9% IRR, with capital payback in 34 months on C$366M of initial CAPEX.
- Annual spodumene concentrate production is expected to nearly double from 199 ktpa to 373 ktpa post-expansion, while LOM C1 unit costs fall from C$1,048/t to C$851/t.
- 100% of the production target is underpinned by Proven and Probable Ore Reserves — no Inferred Resources are included in the economic model — across a 47.2Mt reserve at 1.12% Li₂O supporting a 20-year mine life.
- The three-stage brownfield expansion is structured to bring Stage 1 production online from mid-CY27, with Stages 2 and 3 following in mid-CY28 and mid-CY29 respectively, allowing capital to be deployed progressively.
- Elevra considers the expansion fully funded through its existing Strategic Financing Package announced in May 2026, with detailed engineering and long-lead procurement commencing immediately.
NAL expansion PFS confirms compelling economics for Elevra Lithium
Elevra Lithium (ASX:ELV; NASDAQ:ELVR) has released the results of a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for the staged brownfield expansion of its North American Lithium (NAL) operation in Québec, Canada, confirming the project as a high-return growth opportunity at an already-operating spodumene mine. The PFS demonstrates that the expansion is expected to nearly double annual concentrate production while reducing unit costs, and the company considers the project fully funded through its existing Strategic Financing Package announced in May 2026.
Key highlights from the PFS include:
- Post-tax NPV (8%) for the full expansion case: C$3,218M (US$2,384M)
- Expansion-only post-tax NPV (8%): C$943M (US$699M)
- Post-tax IRR: 49.9%; post-tax payback: 34 months
- Average annual post-expansion production: 373 ktpa (SC5.4), compared to the no-expansion base case of 199 ktpa
- Total initial CAPEX: C$366M (US$271M) (AACE Class 4, ±40% accuracy), including C$73M contingency
- LOM C1 cost post-expansion: C$851/t (US$630/t); AISC post-expansion: C$918/t (US$680/t)
- Mine life: 20 years; Ore Reserves: 47.2Mt at 1.12% Li₂O (Proven + Probable)
- 100% of the production target underpinned by Proven and Probable Ore Reserves, with no Inferred Resources in the economic analysis
Lucas Dow, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer
“The NAL Expansion PFS confirms a compelling value proposition for Elevra, with a high-return brownfield expansion that materially increases production while reducing unit operating costs. The ability to increase average annual production to 373,000 tonnes post-expansion, while reducing LOM average C1 unit costs post expansion to approximately C$851/t (US$630/t), demonstrates the significant operating leverage available at NAL. The production target and cost profile are underpinned by existing Ore Reserves and historical operating data, providing a strong foundation for the production and financial outcomes outlined in the PFS. The staged development approach allows us to bring additional production online from mid-2027, by progressively increasing throughput and capturing operating efficiencies while managing project execution and prudent capital deployment.”
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Three-stage brownfield development unlocks NAL’s production potential
The expansion is structured as a brownfield debottlenecking programme at an already-operational mine with established infrastructure. That starting point matters: cost and performance assumptions draw on actual operating data rather than estimates, which meaningfully reduces execution risk compared to a greenfield project.
Stage-by-stage production ramp
- Stage 1 (mid-CY27): An initial 15–20% increase in annual spodumene concentrate production within NAL’s existing 4,500 tpd milling permit — no new permit required for the throughput increase at this stage.
- Stage 2 (mid-CY28): Downstream milling, flotation and filtration capacity expanded to 6,500 tpd, with additional feed processed via a temporary mobile crushing circuit operating alongside the existing crusher.
- Stage 3 (mid-CY29): The temporary crusher is replaced with a permanent new crushing circuit capable of supporting the 373 ktpa post-expansion production profile, together with additional ore sorting capacity.
The staged approach was adopted to reduce execution risk, bring production forward, and stage capital deployment — allowing incremental operating efficiencies to be captured progressively rather than waiting for the full project build-out.
Key financial metrics at a glance
| Metric | Unit | Base Case | May-26 Scoping | PFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average annual post-expansion production | ktpa | 199 | 338 | 373 |
| LOM C1 cost concentrate | C$/t conc | 1,048 | 868 | 876 |
| LOM C1 cost (post-expansion) | C$/t conc | 1,045 | 847 | 851 |
| Total initial CAPEX | C$M | — | 366 | 366 |
| NPV 8% post-tax | C$M | 2,274 | 3,112 | 3,218 |
| IRR expansion post-tax | % | — | 42% | 50% |
| Payback post-tax | Months | — | 25 | 34 |
| Mine life | Years | 35 | 21 | 20 |
The PFS delivers an incremental post-tax NPV (8%) of C$943M (US$699M), compared to the C$969M (US$718M) incremental post-tax NPV declared in the May-26 Scoping Study, due primarily to a 4% increase in mining costs following more detailed haulage modelling.
What is a Pre-Feasibility Study, and why does it matter for investors?
A PFS sits between a Scoping Study and a full Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS). It is a higher-confidence study with more detailed engineering and cost estimates, but it remains subject to further refinement. The CAPEX estimate carries AACE Class 4 accuracy of ±40% — appropriate for this study stage, with accuracy expected to tighten as the project progresses to DFS (Class 3) and detailed engineering.
Critically, 100% of NAL’s production target is backed by Proven and Probable Ore Reserves, not Inferred Resources. The distinction matters because Inferred Resources carry a higher level of geological uncertainty and cannot support the same level of economic analysis. The fact that no Inferred material is included in the production target or financial model gives investors a firmer foundation for confidence in the projected outcomes.
Being a brownfield study at an operating mine adds further ballast to the estimates. OPEX assumptions for salaries, consumables, maintenance costs and established contracts are drawn from actual operational data — not theoretical benchmarks.
The PFS notes that the project is most sensitive to commodity prices, exchange rates, head grades, and recoveries. Investors should monitor lithium market pricing as a key variable for the project’s financial outcomes.
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Reserves, production profile, and the path to construction
Ore Reserves underpin the full 20-year mine life
- Total Proven + Probable Ore Reserves: 47.2Mt at 1.12% Li₂O
- Proved: 0.2Mt at 0.93% Li₂O; Probable: 47.0Mt at 1.12% Li₂O
- Cut-off grade: 0.60% Li₂O
- These Ore Reserves are not being reported for the first time; they are the same estimates previously reported in the FY26 Annual Report released to the ASX on 28 August 2026
- Average feed grade of 1.17% Li₂O in the PFS, compared to 1.11% in the May-26 Scoping Study, largely due to the benefits of ore sorting equipment
- LOM metallurgical recovery: 71.2% (expansion case), up from 69.2% (base case), attributable to wet high-intensity magnetic separator (WHIMS) flowsheet improvements
Next steps and project timeline
- Engineering moves directly to detailed engineering for Stages 1 and 2 following the PFS
- A DFS is planned to upgrade cost estimate accuracy from AACE Class 4 to Class 3
- Procurement of long-lead items and early works and site preparation to commence alongside detailed engineering
- Stage 1 production increase targeted for mid-CY27; Stage 2 mid-CY28; Stage 3 mid-CY29
- Based on current cost estimates and existing financing arrangements, Elevra considers the expansion fully funded through its Strategic Financing Package (May 2026); however, the company notes there can be no assurance that actual project costs will not exceed current estimates or that delays, scope changes, or other circumstances will not result in additional funding requirements
On permitting, Stages 1 and 2 do not trigger a full environmental assessment under Québec or federal rules — confirmed by relevant authorities — provided the plant capacity increase remains within a 50% uplift and is limited to 6,500 tpd. Stage 3 involves a pit expansion (Phases 6–8) that will affect Lortie Lake, triggering the provincial BAPE public hearing process. This represents a regulatory pathway that management is progressing, though the outcome and timing of the BAPE process remains subject to regulatory review.
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