Aspire Mining Reconfirms 130Mt Coal Reserve With 60% IRR as First Output Nears

Aspire Mining reconfirms 130.1 Mt coal reserve as updated economics validate Ovoot’s development case

Aspire Mining Limited has released an updated JORC (2012) Coal Reserve estimate for its 100%-owned Ovoot Coking Coal Project in Mongolia, with independent consultant Glogex Consulting LLC completing the review effective 31 March 2026. The headline result: a Total Coal Reserve of 130.1 Mt stands unchanged, while a materially more capital-efficient development strategy and refined project economics reinforce the investment case.

The key headline metrics are:

• Total Coal Reserve: 130.1 Mt (76.8 Mt Proved + 53.3 Mt Probable)
• Marketable Coal Reserve: 97.9 Mt (60.0 Mt Proved + 37.9 Mt Probable)
• Post-tax NPV10: US$1,483.3 million (approximately US$1.48B)
• Post-tax real IRR: approximately 60%
• Total Coal Resource: 219.4 Mt JORC

The unchanged reserve quantity, combined with a lower-capital development strategy, is a positive signal. The geological case is intact, while execution risk is being actively reduced.

What’s changed and what hasn’t in the reserve update

Glogex’s principal mandate was not to revise geology or mineable inventory. The review updated Modifying Factors and the Project Cost Model to reflect development progress since the previous estimate in November 2024.

What remains unchanged

• Coal Resource model (SRK, effective 31 October 2024)
• Coal Reserve model, pit limits, mineable inventory and classification
• LOM production schedule (substantively unchanged, rolled forward approximately one year)
• Long-term coking coal price assumption: US$230/t DDP Erlian

What has been updated

1. CHPP and ERT capital is now based on the executed EPC Contract with CCTEG-IEC at a US$69.9M lump-sum price, replacing earlier engineering estimates
2. Initial mining fleet: rented and vendor-maintained for the first 3 years (previously assumed purchased owner-operated fleet)
3. Initial road haulage fleet: contracted supply and maintenance for the first 5 years (previously assumed purchased owner-operated fleet)
4. Non-critical site infrastructure deferred until after first production; vendor-supplied or lease-back structures assumed for certain facilities

These changes collectively reduce the capital required before first coal production, a material de-risking step for project financing and investor confidence.

Understanding JORC coal reserves: what investors need to know

A JORC Coal Resource is a geological estimate of the quantity and quality of coal that has reasonable prospects for eventual economic extraction. It is classified by confidence level as Measured, Indicated, or Inferred, based on the density and reliability of the underlying data.

A JORC Coal Reserve is the economically mineable subset of a Coal Resource. It factors in the full range of Modifying Factors, including mining method, processing, infrastructure, regulatory requirements, and project economics, to confirm that extraction is technically achievable and financially viable. Proved Reserves are derived from Measured Resources (highest confidence), while Probable Reserves are derived from Indicated Resources (good confidence, some uncertainty).

For investors, Glogex’s independent reconfirmation of 130.1 Mt using the same underlying geological models reinforces the credibility of the project’s production case. The fact that the reserve is unchanged despite significant strategy updates signals geological robustness.

The production target breakdown is relevant context:

• 52% from Measured Coal Resources (included within Proved Coal Reserves)
• 36% from Indicated Coal Resources (included within Probable Coal Reserves)
• 12% from Inferred Coal Resources (not included within Coal Reserves)

The 12% Inferred component requires an important caveat. There is a low level of geological confidence associated with Inferred Mineral Resources, and there is no certainty that further exploration work will result in the determination of Indicated Mineral Resources or that the production target itself will be realised. Glogex has reviewed the effect of excluding this material and considers that its exclusion does not undermine the technical or economic viability of the project.

Capital strategy and project economics point toward first production in Q4 2027

Revised capital deployment

The updated Project Cost Model structures capital expenditure across four categories:

• Phase 1 pre-production: US$61.2M (excludes approximately US$24.6M of estimated working capital and capital expenditure incurred to 31 December 2025)
• Phase 1 post-production: US$88.0M
• Phase 2 expansion: US$71.2M
• Sustaining capital over LOM: approximately US$1,037.3M
• Total: US$1,257.7M

For context, the previous Coal Reserve study reported forecast capital expenditure to first revenue of US$214.8M. However, these figures are not directly comparable on a like-for-like basis, because expenditure incurred since the previous estimate is excluded from the new forward capital forecast and the timing, ownership and financing of a number of assets have changed. What the source does confirm is that the updated development strategy materially reduces the amount of project capital required to be deployed before scheduled commencement of coal production.

Project financing strategy

The Project Cost Model assumes that Aspire’s wholly owned Mongolian subsidiary Khurgatai Khairkhan LLC (KK) will progressively raise approximately US$126.0M through the issue of debt securities on the Mongolian Over-the-Counter (OTC) market. The OTC bond structure is assumed to operate as follows:

• Aggregate principal: approximately US$126.0M, raised across multiple tranches
• Assumed term: 24 months per tranche
• Assumed coupon rate: 12% p.a., payable quarterly
• Broker and placement success fees: approximately 3% of gross proceeds
• The model also incorporates approximately US$42.0M of deferred payments to CCTEG-IEC under the EPC Contract, reflecting vendor-financing arrangements supported by China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure)

It is important to note that these are modelling assumptions only and do not represent a guarantee that the required financing will be raised in full, on the assumed timetable, or on the assumed terms. Actual financing amounts, pricing, tenor and repayment terms may differ from those incorporated in the Project Cost Model.

First production target and scale-up

The production ramp-up plan is structured as follows:

• First coal production targeted: Q4 2027
• Initial rate: approximately 1.5 Mtpa ROM coal
• Progressive ramp to approximately 2.5 Mtpa, then to approximately 5.0 Mtpa following Phase 2 modular CHPP expansion
• Operating mine life: approximately 31 years; model period covers 33 years (January 2026 to December 2058)

The updated analysis continues to demonstrate robust project economics. Sensitivity analysis indicates that project NPV is most sensitive to changes in revenue, followed by operating costs and capital costs. Principal outstanding project dependencies include timely implementation of the road Public-Private Partnership, completion of CHPP and ERT construction, availability of sufficient rail capacity, power connection, water supply and completion of remaining permitting arrangements.

Progress on Ovoot project development in Mongolia extends beyond the reserve update itself, with road infrastructure and the Public-Private Partnership arrangement among the key outstanding dependencies that sit on the critical path to first coal production in Q4 2027.

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