Torex Gold Production Hits 74% of Guidance Midpoint With Q4 to Go

Torex Gold has already produced 329,071 oz of gold equivalent this year, with one quarter still to run. That is roughly 74% of the 445,000 oz midpoint of its 2026 guidance. The step Torex Gold production needs to take in the final three months is smaller than the headline range suggests.

In January 2026, Torex set guidance of 420,000-470,000 oz gold equivalent (AuEq), a clear step up from the 376,586 oz of payable production it delivered in 2025. The first half came in moderate, and management said the stronger output would arrive later in the year.

The preliminary release on 6 October 2026 is the first hard test of whether that second-half ramp is arriving on schedule.

You will come away with a clear read on what the numbers say about the midpoint, what the near-perfect match between production and sales signals, and which variables still matter before year-end. All figures are preliminary until the full Q3 results due on 4 November 2026.

What does 329,071 oz tell you about the midpoint?

Start with the guidance range of 420,000-470,000 oz AuEq. Its midpoint sits at 445,000 oz, the figure management has repeatedly pointed to.

Subtract the 329,071 oz already produced and the gap left for Q4 is about 115,929 oz. Now set that against Q3, when Torex produced 131,900 oz.

Q4 can run roughly 12% below Q3’s pace and the midpoint still lands.

The Q4 arithmetic is a simple version of production forecasting, and the same logic of comparing year-to-date output against a guidance midpoint underpins the more sophisticated scheduling models miners use internally.

The path to this point matters as much as the total. Q1 delivered 100,874 oz (including 73,647 oz of gold), and Q2 dipped to 96,297 oz. In its Q2 update, management said output had tracked to plan while mining moved through lower-grade, lower-recovery areas of Media Luna. It also signalled a sharp lift once higher-grade stopes (the underground chambers where ore is extracted) became accessible.

Q3 is that lift showing up on schedule. The company described the result this way:

Management on guidance Torex said the quarter leaves it “solidly on track to achieve the midpoint of full-year production guidance of 420,000 to 470,000 oz AuEq.”

The Deep Dive reached the same arithmetic, calling the Q4 requirement comfortably below what Torex had just delivered. For you, the useful shift is in the question itself. With a checkable threshold of about 116,000 oz against a demonstrated 131,900 oz, the debate moves from whether Torex reaches the midpoint to how far above it the year could finish.

What is driving the Q3 step-up at Media Luna and ELG?

On the surface, Q3 reads as a straightforward beat on volume. Reading it properly, though, means understanding how Torex counts its output.

How AuEq is calculated

Gold equivalent, or AuEq, is a single number that combines gold, silver and copper output by converting the other metals into the amount of gold they would be worth. Torex uses fixed guidance prices for this: US$4,500/oz for gold, US$72.50/oz for silver and US$6.00/lb for copper.

In plain terms, each metal’s output is multiplied by the ratio of its assumed price to the gold price, then added to the gold ounces. These are conversion assumptions set at the start of the year, not the spot prices you see on any given day.

That distinction matters because guidance expects sales of roughly 74% gold and 20% copper, with the remainder silver. Your exposure here is no longer to gold alone; copper and silver output now shapes the profile of every quarter.

What Q3 operations show

The operating data from Q3 points to throughput rather than luck:

• Media Luna Underground: 8,244 tonnes per day (tpd), against a 7,500 tpd design rate, about 10% above the level the mine was built to sustain
• ELG Underground: 3,055 tpd
• Morelos Complex processing: average 10,798 tpd
• Gold recovery: 88.2%, the share of gold in the ore that the plant actually captures

Mining above design while the plant keeps recovery high means more ore is moving through the system and being converted efficiently. Combined with the higher-grade stopes management flagged in Q2, that explains why Q3 outpaced the first half.

Mining above design rate while holding recovery high is not trivial, because underground mining engineering challenges such as ground conditions, ventilation and stope sequencing can cap throughput well before a mill reaches capacity.

The next marker is Media Luna North, which remains on schedule for first ore before the end of 2026.

What this tells you is that the Q3 level rests on mining rates and ore access that should persist, not a one-off grade spike. That makes it more repeatable, which is exactly what the Q4 arithmetic needs.

Why does the near-match between production and sales matter?

Year to date, Torex produced 329,071 oz AuEq and sold 328,918 oz.

The gap is about 153 oz.

Across nine months and three metals, that is close to perfect alignment. It points to no meaningful inventory build and no shipment lag across doré (the semi-pure gold bars poured on site) or concentrate (the processed copper and silver-rich material shipped to smelters).

Q3 on its own shows sales trailing production by about 4,500 oz. Given that year-to-date figures are effectively level, this looks like a modest timing difference between quarters rather than a build-up of unsold metal.

Logistics will matter more from here. Media Luna is polymetallic, so a growing share of AuEq is realised through concentrate shipments, and StockTitan observed that these deliveries are being monetised alongside gold. Smooth shipping keeps the link between output and sales tight.

Sales guidance of 410,000-460,000 oz sits below the production range because it reflects payable deductions, the portion of metal buyers do not pay for. For you, the takeaway is that sales, not production, connect directly to revenue and cash flow. Near-parity suggests the production ramp is likely to flow through to reported results rather than sit in stockpiles.

What could still push Torex Gold production off the midpoint?

The numbers so far are strong. That does not make the outcome certain, and the risks deserve a specific look.

Risks to watch

1. Grade variability. Management’s own Q2 comments on lower-grade, lower-recovery zones show how grade swings can move quarterly output and unit costs.
2. Ramp-up execution and cost inflation. The second-half lift depends on continued access to higher-grade stopes, so delays, geotechnical problems or plant constraints could weaken it. Labour, consumables and energy inflation could also pressure costs.
3. Price assumptions and multi-metal exposure. Guidance uses fixed prices, and copper and silver account for about 26% of expected AuEq sales at the five-year midpoint, adding sensitivity beyond gold.
4. Mexican jurisdiction risk. Fiscal terms, permitting rules and long-standing security concerns in Guerrero remain structural risks, although the research found no specific 2026 incident affecting Morelos.

The research turned up no named analyst arguing Torex will miss the midpoint. Commentary on mid-tier ramp-ups suggests producers tend to land near the midpoint when development stays ahead of stoping, but those peer comparisons have not been independently verified and should be weighed cautiously.

What to check on 4 November

• Final reconciled Q3 production and sales figures
• Total cash cost and all-in sustaining cost (AISC) data, which were not found in the materials reviewed
• Realised gold, silver and copper prices
• Progress toward first ore at Media Luna North

Read together, these risks bear mostly on the size of any beat and on costs, not on whether the midpoint is reachable.

Torex Gold’s Q3 2026 production release sets out the preliminary AuEq production and sales figures behind this analysis, and confirms that cash cost, AISC and realised prices will arrive with the full results on 4 November.

These statements are speculative and subject to change based on market developments and company performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Reading the Q4 setup: what the numbers settle and what they leave open

Three findings now look settled. The midpoint needs only a modest Q4, the drivers behind Q3 look structural rather than one-off, and production is converting into sales almost ounce for ounce.

What remains open is just as clear. Costs, realised prices and grade delivery in the final quarter are all unconfirmed, and the full results on 4 November 2026 are the next point at which those gaps start to close.

For your own assessment, the sensible base case is the midpoint. The more useful signal to watch is evidence that the year is heading above it, and whether costs keep pace with the volume.

Investors weighing how volume interacts with cost pressure can read our detailed coverage of the Q4 margin squeeze, which shows how royalties lift AISC for unhedged producers.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.