Rackla’s Lentung Tungsten Bet Hinges on 44-Year-Old Drill Records

Rackla Metals lost most of its market value on a gold drilling disappointment, and its recovery plan now rests on 44-year-old paper records. Union Carbide walked away from the Lentung tungsten project in 1982 when prices collapsed; tungsten now trades near US$2,900/mtu, a level those records never saw.

Lentung is not a grassroots discovery. It is an unowned, previously drilled property that Rackla restaked in late 2025, so the real question is whether old numbers survive modern scrutiny.

The gap between a historic estimate and a compliant resource is where an investor stands to gain or lose. Here is a framework for judging whether the twin-hole programme can turn an archive into something investable, and which variables matter most.

From Grad’s gold disappointment to a restaked tungsten property: why did Rackla change course?

The pivot trades one kind of risk for another. Discovery risk (whether anything is there) gives way to verification risk (whether old numbers hold up), which is more measurable but not risk-free.

What went wrong at Grad

Rackla drilled about 4,500 m in 10 holes at its Grad gold target after a 2024 surface showing called BiTe returned multi-gram gold samples. The best intercept was 10.5 m at 2.56 g/t Au, and roughly $4 million was spent.

The share price fell sharply once the 2025 assays arrived, erasing most of the company’s market value. Gold cannot be judged by eye in core, so nobody knew the answer until the labs reported.

What the hillside revealed

Then a crew flew into a valley north of the old Cantung mine and spotted drill core scattered across a hillside, with switchback roads cutting across the central zone. The ground was unowned, and Rackla staked it cheaply in late 2025.

Yukon prospector Ron Berdahl, who held the claims from the 1990s until they lapsed in 2014, sold the company his boxes of Union Carbide data for a 1% net smelter royalty (a share of future revenue). The archive includes:

• paper drill logs and lab geochemistry
• metallurgical studies, pit design and engineering
• environmental baseline work
• original geological maps and cross-sections
• floppy discs

Union Carbide drilled about 26,900 m over a 15 km extent between 1977 and 1982, applied for a mining permit, then withdrew it when prices fell. The company values the work at about $25 million in today’s money.

Historic and non-compliant Union Carbide’s central zone estimate: about 1.5 million tons at roughly 1.27% WO3. This is not a current resource and cannot be relied upon.

What you are watching is a data-validation exercise, but management credibility now rests on a single test.

How twin holes turn a 44-year-old estimate into something investable

The question twinning answers is simple: do new holes drilled beside old ones find the same grades?

Why historic estimates cannot be relied on

A historic estimate is a figure calculated under older standards. It becomes a compliant resource only after modern quality control, certified laboratories and review by a Qualified Person (a technical expert who signs off the work).

Rackla says there is currently no compliant resource at Lentung. Until that changes, the 1.27% figure is a lead, not a fact.

What the 2026 programme must prove

The programme totals about 10,000 m, including roughly 2,200 m across 27 twin holes, plus about 6,000 m of reverse circulation drilling to expand near-surface mineralisation. Twinning has three jobs: confirm mineralisation, test whether historic sampling was unbiased, and build a modern dataset.

Drilling began in mid-August 2026, the first on the property since 1982. By 17 September, the company had completed more than 2,000 m of diamond drilling (20 holes) and 277 m of reverse circulation (5 holes). As of 5 October 2026, no twin-hole assays have been released, and a resource estimate is targeted for Q1 2027.

The path from drill rig to estimate runs in sequence:

1. Twin holes are drilled beside historic holes.
2. Samples go to certified labs for assay.
3. QA/QC checks validate the results.
4. Results combine with the historic 26,900 m in a geological model.
5. A compliant estimate follows.

A mixed match is a more probable outcome than a clean confirmation or total failure. The first assays will be the most informative event in the story, so judge them against these tests rather than headline grades.

For readers wanting to see how a compliant estimate is built, our dedicated guide to completing a mineral resource estimate walks through the five steps from raw drill data to a signed-off figure.

Why tungsten near US$2,900 per mtu changes the Lentung equation

Price and policy

Tungsten prices were broadly flat for decades, and China’s influence helped force Cantung’s closure in 2015. Then MOFCOM Announcement No. 10/2025 (4 February 2025) imposed export licensing, and ammonium paratungstate (APT, the main traded intermediate) exports fell about 70% in 2025.

Western gains exceeded 600%. China produces roughly 79-82% of mine supply and about 85% of APT refining, depending on the source.

A two-tier market Chinese domestic APT traded near US$1,200/mtu in mid-2026, while export-grade material commanded a large premium.

Supply security is the logic behind the rally. Whether it lasts is another matter.

Export licensing has turned what was a slow-moving commodity into a global supply crisis, with Western buyers paying a steep premium for non-Chinese material while domestic Chinese prices lag far behind.

• Structural view: persistent Chinese dominance, critical-minerals designations and defence demand that is relatively insensitive to economic cycles.
• Cyclical view: tungsten’s boom-and-bust history, possible loosening of Chinese quotas, substitution and new non-Chinese supply.

CEO Simon Ridgway doubts current prices will hold indefinitely, but expects an open-pit deposit like Lentung to stay economic. The price you assume over a multi-year development horizon matters more than today’s spot.

Lentung’s neighbours

Lentung’s near-surface skarn (scheelite in limestone altered by a granite intrusion) sits 30-50 m below surface in the central zone, with 15-30 m intervals at several percent WO3. Cantung, about 60 km away, has an idle mill, is under creditor protection and is subject to a joint federal and Northwest Territories government sales process announced in September 2026.

Mactung, owned by the territorial government, is being advanced by Fireweed Metals toward a feasibility study targeted for early 2027, backed by US$15.8 million in US Defense Production Act funding. Infrastructure sharing with Lentung is unconfirmed.

A risk and reward framework for assessing Rackla’s validation bet

Where the upside case holds

The bull case rests on shallow, open-pittable material, an extensive historic dataset and tungsten’s critical-minerals status. Rackla reported a C$3.65 million flow-through placement on 24 September 2026 and describes the programme as fully funded. The Northwest Territories also needs a successor to its maturing diamond mines, though that point is unverified.

Funding is a separate risk from geology, because critical minerals investment has been uneven and dilutive raises can erode returns even when drilling results are sound.

Where it can break

Exploration is permitted, but mine development would need environmental assessment, consultation and water and land-use approvals. A future mine might depend on the idle Cantung mill, and remote logistics and weather add pressure.

Open-pit economics are price-sensitive, and Union Carbide’s 1982 exit shows what a price reversal does. Grad shows what a disappointment does to market value. Precedents exist for both successful conversions and downgrades, though they are not independently confirmed.

The near-term bet is binary: assays either replicate or they do not. The long-term bet is gradual, and you should size any position to that distinction. Five checkpoints apply to each release:

1. Whether twin-hole grades match the historic holes.
2. How quickly assays arrive after drilling.
3. Results from reverse circulation expansion drilling.
4. Whether the resource estimate stays on its Q1 2027 timetable.
5. The terms of any new financing.

What to hold onto as the first assays arrive

Lentung converts a discovery bet into a verification bet. Tungsten’s price backdrop raises the payoff without reducing the verification risk.

Three variables matter most: the twin-hole grade match, a compliant resource by Q1 2027, and whether prices stay durable. Judge the next few releases against those, not the company’s framing.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. These statements are speculative and subject to change based on market developments and company performance.