Why CPM’s Christian Says Charts Matter Least in Gold and Silver

Gold traded through $4,000 an ounce, found a floor and bounced. Silver is now pressing against $60. Many traders would read the broken trend lines as the whole story, yet CPM Group managing partner Jeffrey Christian argues the chart is the least important input in any serious gold and silver forecast.

The timing matters. Both metals sit close to record territory inside a wide, volatile range. Chart-based and fundamentals-based readings of the same price action are pointing investors in different directions.

Christian’s own framework, set out across CPM commentary through 2025 and 2026, gives you a way to separate the two. Here is where the key support levels sit, how CPM keeps timing apart from conviction, and why the widely quoted silver deficit depends on a single accounting choice.

Where gold and silver trade now, and which support levels matter

On Tuesday, 6 October 2026, December COMEX gold futures sat at about $4,193, within a session range of roughly $4,130-$4,200. Bloomberg showed front-month futures at 4,201.40 and Investing.com showed 4,201.26. These are futures and commentary-based levels; no labelled spot quotes for the day were located.

Gold: a range with a decisive move approaching

The more useful picture is the ladder beneath the price. According to Christian’s presentation, a trend line from January 2024 supports gold near $4,000, while a line from the July 2019 bull market implies support around $2,200-$2,400.

Gold has already tested the first rung. In commentary from July 2026, CPM noted the metal broke below $4,000, reached its ultra-short-term target of $3,975, and touched about $3,963 before CPM called a rebound toward $4,200-$4,300. CPM placed major support near $3,800 and did not expect $3,500.

That sequence shows how CPM treats levels: as pacing markers, not verdicts. Christian says the range is nearing the point where a decisive move has to come.

Support levels are not fixed barriers, and precious metals price floors tend to shift with dollar strength and real yields, which is why a trend line alone rarely tells you how much weight a level can carry.

Silver: a gentler trend line and a higher floor

Silver rallied to the mid-$50s, hit CPM’s short-term targets and triggered a sell signal, then climbed to test $60. Its January 2024 trend line is far less steep, offering support only near $28-$30. CPM expects silver to hold above about $54-$55 even in a sell-off.

The trend-line levels come from Christian’s presentation and have no independent published confirmation. The gap between $4,000 and $2,200-$2,400 tells you a break can mean a modest pullback or a deep reset, so treat the nearest line as a timing signal and the lowest as a tail risk.

Why CPM uses charts for timing and fundamentals for direction

Most investors assume technical and fundamental analysis are rival camps. CPM treats them as tools with different jobs.

Technical analysis studies price itself: trend lines, support (a level where buying has tended to halt declines), resistance (a level where selling has tended to cap rallies) and trader positioning. Fundamental analysis looks at what moves the market underneath, including mine supply, demand, inventories, investment flows and the wider economy.

Christian ranks technicals below supply-demand work and macro or political conditions. CPM’s method runs top-down: macroeconomics first, then commodity-level supply and demand, then charts for pacing and for understanding traders who rely on them. The firm has issued 10-year projections since the early 1980s and prepares quarterly projections for the economy, gold and silver.

The gold example shows both working at once. The $3,975 target and rebound were timing calls, while CPM’s longer-term view of a move toward $5,000 into 2027 is a direction call.

The timing calls and the direction call sit together in CPM’s gold forecast, where a move toward $5,000 into 2027 survives sharp interim pullbacks like the one that followed the Jackson Hole session.

The division of labour In CPM’s framework, chart signals refine the route to a fundamental target. They do not decide where the market is ultimately heading.

Neither tool is complete alone. Around the August COMEX contract, about 23 million ounces remained open, the kind of positioning that can drive short-covering a pure fundamentals model would miss. For you, a support break should change when you act, not necessarily what you believe, so decide in advance which of the two questions you are asking.

Is silver really in deficit? The investment demand argument

That distinction between timing and direction carries straight into silver’s most quoted statistic. The same market can be read as deficit or surplus depending on one decision.

Two ways to build a balance

The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2025, compiled with Metals Focus, reported a fourth successive deficit, with cumulative stock drawdowns of about 796 Moz (million ounces) over 2021-2025F. Mine production was about 819.7 Moz in 2024. That balance sets all demand, physical investment included, against mine supply plus recycling.

CPM compares newly refined supply only with fabrication demand, meaning metal turned into products. Investment flows sit in a separate layer that can soak up surplus metal or release it.

On CPM’s figures, including investment demand of about 1.3 billion ounces produces roughly 970 Moz of cumulative deficits over five years. Exclude it, and three of those five years show surpluses, a discrepancy of about 950 Moz.

Why the numbers diverge

Christian argues investment buying moves metal between owners rather than consuming it. He adds that large above-ground stocks mean drawdowns are not proof of shortage, and that producer forwards are financial commitments hedged by traders, not physical spot sales.

The 796 Moz and 970 Moz figures come from different sources, periods and methods, so they are not directly comparable. No 2026 survey figures were available, and Christian concedes only Metals Focus produces comparable data, which leaves CPM’s a minority view.

What this tells you is that “silver deficit” is a methodological claim, not a physical fact. Before using it to justify a price view, ask what sits inside the demand number.

Investors exploring the opposing view will find our detailed coverage of the silver market deficit, which breaks down how investment flows feed the imbalance.

The longer-term case, and what could derail it

Strip away the accounting dispute and both camps agree investment demand carries the weight. CPM simply makes it the centre of the forecast.

The bull case rests on investors

Christian says fabrication demand tends to move inversely with price, while investment demand moves with it and drives the larger swings. In an August 2026 interview he linked rising investment to geopolitical, economic and deglobalisation risks. In a December 2024 podcast he cited about 66 Moz of silver investment demand that year and a projection above 120 Moz the next.

In early October, Christian noted large investors had not rebuilt substantial short positions. He also argued stronger investment buying is a prerequisite for sustained silver gains.

The silver investment renaissance now under way reflects investor psychology as much as metal balances, and that behavioural layer is why CPM treats investment buying as the prerequisite for sustained gains.

Conditions that could stall it

CPM’s January 2026 summary said a rally would be checked by changes in investor behaviour, interest rates and macro conditions, not simply a trend-line break. The specific risks:

• Rising real rates: inflation-adjusted yields make non-yielding metals less attractive.
• A stronger US dollar: tends to weigh on dollar-priced metals.
• Easing geopolitics: would remove a key motive for investment buying.
• Crowded longs: sharp rallies can reverse fast when speculative positions pile up.
• Technology substitution: CPM expects silver to lose about half the solar panel market over ten years, and the AI demand thesis has been described as wobbling.

No central bank purchase volumes, ETF flows or major-bank forecasts for 2025-2026 were located to cross-check CPM. Its long-term outlook rests mostly on one variable, so watch real rates, the dollar and positioning rather than chart breaks alone.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Financial projections are subject to market conditions and various risk factors.

Reading CPM’s outlook without picking a side

You can hold a patient long-term view and still respect near-term range risk. The levels handle timing, fundamentals handle direction, and headline balances deserve scepticism. A short checklist:

• Levels: gold at $4,000 and $3,800; silver at $54-$55.
• Macro: real interest rates and the US dollar.
• Positioning: whether large investors rebuild short positions.
• Deficit claims: whether investment demand is counted as consumption.

CPM sells research, and its view is informed opinion rather than certainty. No source here offered bank forecasts to test it against, so weigh it as one voice among several.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Forward-looking statements are speculative and subject to change based on market developments.