Mexico Private Gasoline Imports Fall 34% as Pemex Takes Share

Private gasoline imports into Mexico fell 34% year on year in August 2026, to 105,200 barrels per day (b/d), while state oil company Pemex imported more. Yet the January-August average for private imports was down only 3%. That modest year-to-date number hides how sharply the market broke after March.

The timing matters. Mexico’s voluntary Ps24 per liter cap on regular gasoline has been renewed again, and reporting in early October points to it holding until at least March 2027. The pressure on private importers is not a passing blip. It is the operating environment for anyone tied to Mexican fuel logistics for the next several months.

How did Pemex take share from private importers in 2026?

Start with August. Private importers brought in 105,200 b/d, down from 159,600 b/d a year earlier, and their share of total gasoline imports fell to 26.5% from 36.2%. Pemex imports rose 4% to 291,800 b/d, while total gasoline imports slipped 10% to 397,000 b/d.

August 2026 snapshot Private gasoline imports fell 34% year on year, cutting the private share of Mexico’s gasoline imports to 26.5%.

Rewind to the start of the year and the picture looks entirely different. Private importers were expanding fast in February and March, then the trend reversed and never recovered.

The decisive evidence sits in May and June. Pemex imports rose 13% in May and 42% in June, while total gasoline imports were almost unchanged in May and up 9% in June.

Supply did not shrink. The importer changed.

The squeeze reflects what happens when price controls collide with import dependency: importers cannot pass costs on, so supply shifts toward whoever can absorb losses, which in Mexico means the state-backed supplier.

That distinction should reshape how you read volume data. If you model terminal throughput on the assumption that Mexican demand is softening, you are solving the wrong problem; private barrels are being displaced by Pemex barrels. The strong February and March volumes also show how a year-to-date average can mask a structural break.

A broader measure points the same way, though it is not directly comparable. Across gasoline and diesel combined, Pemex held 78.2% of imports in May 2026, up from 48.4% in January, with private importers handling 152,000 b/d, the lowest since the 2020 pandemic low.

Pemex’s regular sales gain

Pemex’s domestic sales split sharply by grade. Premium sales averaged 143,500 b/d in January-August, down 7%, while regular sales averaged 585,200 b/d, up 16%. In August alone, premium fell 15% and regular rose 24%.

One limitation deserves plain statement: energy ministry import data do not separate regular from premium gasoline. The sales pattern suggests private importers lost ground mainly in regular, but the data cannot prove it.

Why does a ten-centavo gap erase an importer’s margin?

The signal is simple. On 14 September, the tax-inclusive cost of delivering 87-octane gasoline to Mexico’s east coast was Ps21.58 per liter, according to Argus calculations. Pemex’s regular terminal price, the wholesale price it charges at its fuel terminals, was Ps21.68.

That is a gap of ten centavos, or one-tenth of a peso.

A private importer’s delivered cost is built from three layers:

• The US Gulf Coast (USGC) price: the market price of gasoline loaded in the US Gulf, the main source of Mexico’s imports.
• Taxes: Mexican duties, including the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS), a federal excise tax on fuel.
• Logistics: shipping, insurance and terminal handling to bring fuel into Mexico.

The first layer moved hard this year. Argus assessed the waterborne USGC 87-octane price delivered to Mexico’s east coast at $1.85 per US gallon in February, $3.13 in May and $2.88 in August, 45% above a year earlier. Tax-inclusive delivered cost averaged Ps20.45 per liter from January to 14 September, up 8%.

Middle East price pressure feeds directly into US Gulf Coast gasoline, the benchmark that sets Mexican import costs, so geopolitical shocks reach private importers before they reach the capped pump price.

Wider US benchmarks, such as USGC conventional gasoline at about $3.84-4.03 per gallon in early October, use a different basis. They are separate measures, not contradictory ones.

That Ps2.42 must cover inland transport and every retail margin beneath the Ps24 ($5.06 per US gallon) ceiling. Pemex sets a lower floor at its terminals, so an importer cannot undercut it, and the cap stops anyone passing costs on. Private importers told Argus that Pemex’s regular prices have at times been artificially low, and terminal operators reported volumes well below usual levels.

For you, the implication is direct: any further rise in USGC prices pushes importers below breakeven. Private import volume has effectively become a leveraged bet on the direction of US gasoline prices.

Regular versus premium: where private suppliers can still compete

At more than 70 terminals, Pemex charges one flat wholesale price for regular gasoline whatever the order size. Premium is priced terminal by terminal and includes a surcharge tied to volume, so bigger buyers pay a smaller add-on.

That structure leaves private suppliers room to compete in premium. The catch is scale, because the premium market is much smaller than regular.

Is the squeeze structural or a cyclical side effect of the price pact?

The mechanics explain how importers are losing. The harder question is whether the pressure will lift.

How the Ps24 pact works

The “Strategy to Stabilize the Price of Regular Gasoline” is a voluntary agreement between President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government and station operators, covering about 96% of outlets and more than 20 companies. It first took effect in March 2025 and has been renewed in six-month terms, including March 2026 and extensions through August-October 2026. A diesel reference of Ps27 per liter was added around April 2026.

The government uses IEPS tax relief to absorb global price swings. Consumer agency Profeco reports about 90% compliance and an average regular price of Ps23.68 per liter. El Economista reports the cap should hold until at least March 2027, though some reports say February 2027.

The two readings stack up as follows.

Refinery utilisation sat around 58% in mid-2026, but Pemex gasoline output reached 418,000-439,000 b/d over the summer, with 439,346 b/d in August. New permits to firms such as Alveg, Petrotal and L.E. International have been limited, shorter and smaller.

On the cyclical side, Alejandro Montufar, director of PetroIntelligence, has argued that compliance holds only while Pemex maintains its wholesale support. That makes the pact contingent, not permanent.

The most defensible reading combines both. A cyclical trigger, rising import costs, is producing a structural outcome inside a framework that favours Pemex. No Latin American precedent offers a benchmark for how this ends.

For you, the distinction is practical. If the squeeze is cyclical, volumes could recover as prices fall; if it is structural, you should not underwrite a rebound on lower prices alone.

What does the shift mean for terminals, traders and investors?

The answer differs by where your exposure sits.

Terminals face the most immediate pressure, with operators already reporting volumes well below usual levels. Pemex’s falling need for imports compounds this: its refined fuel imports averaged 414,000 b/d in January-October 2025, down from 534,000 b/d a year earlier.

Traders face margin compression and limited permit access. Few new permits were granted in 2026, while ExxonMobil, Valero, Shell, Marathon, Koch and Grupo Simsa hold authorisations through 2038, which leaves the majors better placed to wait out the squeeze than smaller entrants.

Latin American energy investors carry fiscal and policy risk. Every peso of IEPS relief is forgone revenue, and sustained high prices could force changes to the cap.

The IEPS fiscal shock from higher crude prices shows how quickly subsidising a fixed pump price can strain public finances if oil stays elevated.

Supply security is the other counterweight.

Supply-security risk Mexico relies heavily on US fuel, and El País reports the country is “on alert” after Donald Trump backed a proposal to ban US diesel exports.

Three variables, in priority order, will decide whether private importers regain share:

1. Pemex refinery utilisation: progress from about 58% toward the 80% target cuts import demand permanently.
2. US Gulf Coast price direction: falling prices reopen the gap between delivered cost and Pemex’s terminal price.
3. The March 2027 renewal decision: any change to terms, support or participation resets the economics.

What the data cannot tell you

The research cannot split the private decline by grade, so the regular-gasoline share of losses remains an inference. No quantified evidence links the cap to fuel theft or illicit imports. Without regional precedents, any forecast rests on Mexico’s own data alone.

Reading the squeeze before the next renewal decision

The August fall in private imports is the visible result of three forces working together: a ten-centavo margin, a state-backed wholesale price and a retail pact covering almost every station in the country.

The judgement call you need to make is whether that combination is temporary or permanent. Watch USGC prices, Pemex’s throughput progress and the renewal talks ahead of March 2027. If all three move against private importers, treat any volume recovery thesis with caution.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Financial projections are subject to market conditions and various risk factors.