LME Copper Stocks Fall 3,750t as Shanghai Shuts for Golden Week

LME copper rose 0.52% to about 654.5 US cents per lb (roughly US$14,430/t) on Monday 5 October 2026, while LME warehouse stocks dropped 3,750 t with Shanghai shut for Golden Week. The move extends a year in which copper has become one of the best-performing major commodities.

The price sits a few percent below its September record, and the 2026 year-to-date average is 40.53% above the same period of 2025. For anyone holding copper exposure, the question while Chinese markets are dark is whether physical tightness is building beneath a modest daily gain.

Here is what the stock data, the exchange split and the rest of the metals complex tell you about where that tightness is showing up. The answer sits less in the price than in the warehouses.

Why did LME stocks fall while Shanghai was closed?

The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported copper stocks of 244,900 t at the 5 October opening, a fall of 3,750 t or 1.51% in one session. Over the same period, stocks on COMEX, the US exchange, rose 771 t to 706,818 t, while stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) were unchanged at 38,744 t.

The figures come from the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), as reported by Reporte Minero. The SHFE number is stale: the holiday recess, running through 1-7/8 October, froze it at the 30 September close, so the cross-exchange comparison is incomplete.

Several other points circulating in coverage are unverified and should be read with caution:

• Combined LME, COMEX and Shanghai stocks recently sat near one million tonnes (unconfirmed).
• Cancelled warrants, metal earmarked for removal from LME warehouses, were reported near half of LME stocks (unconfirmed).
• Available LME copper was put at around 133,725 t (unconfirmed).
• Chinese social inventories tracked by SMM were reported at 78,300 t, a multi-year low (unconfirmed).
• LME stocks were said to have fallen from a peak near 400,000 t in April (unconfirmed).

If those figures hold, aggregate stocks can look ample while the metal actually available to clear LME contracts is far smaller. A one-day drawdown in a thin holiday session tells you the market is more sensitive to LME warrant movements than the headline totals suggest.

LME warehouse withdrawals tied to COMEX arbitrage and tariff positioning have pulled metal out of London for months, which helps explain why a single thin session can move the exchange total so visibly.

What is driving copper’s 40.5% year-on-year rally?

Monday’s print of 654.5 cents/lb compares with 651.1 cents/lb the previous business day. Both sit well above the 610.0 cents/lb year-to-date average for 2026 and the 434.1 cents/lb average for 2025.

Year-to-date average price gain The 2026 average of 610.0 cents/lb is 40.53% above the 2025 average of 434.1 cents/lb, according to Cochilco.

That is an average-price comparison, not a point-to-point return. Cochilco ties the trend to solid global demand and eased supply pressure, though named bank or agency explanations for the rally were not found.

The 2026 copper rally has been shaped by a mix of supply disruption, infrastructure demand and trade policy, and the weighting of those forces matters for how long prices can hold near record levels.

Structural supports versus fading tariff effects

The drivers split into two groups, and they are not equally durable.

• Structural: tight deliverable LME stocks, and demand from cables, wiring and fabrication.
• Cyclical: US tariff-driven COMEX-LME spreads and stockpiling, which SMM reportedly described as “fading but not over” (unconfirmed).

Unverified market snapshots add some texture. LME cash was reported at US$14,355/t on 2 October, after a pullback of roughly 4% from the record by 1-2 October, with COMEX at a premium of about 0.6% (all unconfirmed). Tacto reportedly expects an October range of US$14,000-15,000/t.

The main risk to the thesis is plain. If cancelled warrants are re-warranted, or metal moves onto the LME from other venues, perceived tightness could ease and prices could correct.

The rally rests more on physical constraints than on a single catalyst, so you should watch stock and warrant data rather than waiting for a headline trigger.

How did nickel, zinc, tin and lithium trade alongside copper?

Copper’s gain was not a sector-wide lift. Of the five LME base metals in the Cochilco data, only nickel and lead rose, while aluminium, tin and zinc closed lower.

The wider base metals outlook points to structural demand from AI infrastructure and electrification, which helps explain why nickel and lead edged higher even as aluminium, tin and zinc slipped.

Sources conflict on tin’s direction, with some earlier snapshots describing it as firmer. This article uses the Cochilco 5 October figure of -0.19%, the most recent available.

Battery-grade lithium carbonate was unchanged at US$18.95/kg (minimum 99.5% purity, FOB South America), a reference compiled by Cochilco from Central Bank of Chile data. For investors with battery-materials exposure, that flat reading shows no spillover from copper.

Because only two of five base metals rose, you can read copper’s gain as driven by its own inventory story rather than broad industrial demand.

What to watch once Shanghai reopens

The price gain is modest. The stock drawdown is the real signal, and the evidence for tightness is stronger on the LME than in the global total.

Three data points will confirm or weaken the thesis. The first is the refreshed SHFE stock reading once the exchange reopens. The second is whether Chinese post-holiday restocking meets the low domestic inventories reported. The third is further LME warrant cancellations, or a reversal through re-warranting.

Investors exploring the longer horizon can read our deep-dive into 2040 copper consumption, which examines the projected path to 42 million tonnes.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Price forecasts cited are third-party views and are subject to market conditions and various risk factors.