MinRes Posts Record A$2.6B EBITDA and Lifts FY2027 Guidance

Mineral Resources has posted the strongest financial result in its 20-year listed history, and it chose the same day to upgrade FY2027 guidance across both iron ore and lithium while declaring it intends to move into copper.

The result, released on 27 August 2026, lands at an operational inflection point for one of Australia’s most prominent critical minerals producers. Lithium prices have recovered sharply from the brutal 2023-2024 downturn, Onslow Iron has pushed past its stated nameplate capacity, and a US$765 million deal with POSCO Holdings is inching toward completion.

For investors and market watchers, the takeaway is unusually rich. The numbers reveal where MinRes volumes, costs, and cashflows are headed over the coming year, and the copper ambition tells you how management now reads the commodity cycle. Here is what the data actually says about where MinRes goes from here.

Record FY2026 results anchor a year of operational turnaround

MinRes delivered a financial result that reset the company’s own benchmark, headlined by underlying earnings that more than doubled in a single year.

The four headline metrics for FY2026:

• Revenue: A$6.5 billion, up approximately 44% year-on-year
• Underlying EBITDA: A$2.6 billion, up 183% year-on-year, a new company record
• Underlying NPAT: A$822 million
• Statutory NPAT: A$1.2 billion

A 183% EBITDA uplift in a single year MinRes moved from managing financial pressure to generating significant surplus capital in the space of twelve months.

That earnings figure is the strongest in the group’s two decades on the ASX, and it was not the product of a single windfall. The iron ore division contributed roughly A$1.0 billion in underlying EBITDA, the largest divisional share, supported by Onslow Iron reaching nameplate capacity and firmer realised prices. Mining Services added A$976 million on record production of 341Mt.

The clearest signal of restored confidence came in the form of a surprise dividend return, the first following a stretch of balance sheet pressure. Management does not return capital to shareholders while it is still repairing a balance sheet unless it believes the recovery is structural rather than temporary.

For you as an investor, this matters before the guidance numbers mean anything. The FY2026 result establishes the credible financial baseline against which the FY2027 targets can be judged as either ambitious or conservative. Without that anchor, the volume and cost projections that follow are just numbers on a page.

Iron ore volumes climb as Onslow pushes past nameplate capacity

The iron ore guidance uplift reads as a story of operational confidence, most visible in what MinRes intends to do at Onslow.

Total attributable iron ore sales guidance for FY2027 sits at 30.0-32.7Mt, up from 29.6Mt delivered in FY2026. Onslow Iron carries most of that, guided to 20.0-21.7Mt, with the smaller Pilbara Hub adding 10.0-11.0Mt.

The decision that stands out is the run-rate target. Onslow’s run-of-mine nameplate capacity of 35Mtpa (100% basis) was achieved in August 2025, yet MinRes is targeting an annualised run-rate of roughly 38Mtpa during FY2027, underpinned by additional transhipping vessels.

The Onslow nameplate milestone, achieved in August 2025, set the operational floor from which MinRes is now pushing toward a 38Mtpa annualised run-rate, a step-up that adds transhipping and logistics risk in exchange for meaningful volume upside.

Supporting operational milestones include:

• Onslow nameplate capacity of 35Mtpa achieved in August 2025
• Lamb Creek open pit first ore shipment in March 2026

Pushing an operation with a 35Mtpa nameplate toward a 38Mtpa run-rate means MinRes is accepting elevated logistics and maintenance risk in exchange for volume upside. Blended average unit costs are guided at A$64-68.50/t, barely moved from A$65.50/t in FY2026, with the cost figures resting on a diesel price assumption of A$1.25/litre inclusive of fuel tax credit rebates.

For you, the Onslow run-rate ambition is the single most operationally leveraged part of the iron ore plan. If the transhipping fleet and port logistics carry the extra volume, the margin follows. If a marine or maintenance bottleneck bites, both volumes and costs move the wrong way at once, and the narrow cost guidance leaves little cushion.

Lithium guidance lifts 30% as Bald Hill restarts and POSCO deal nears close

The lithium story is a portfolio effect rather than a single-mine bet, and it comes attached to the cash that funds what happens next.

Total SC6 spodumene concentrate sales guidance for FY2027 is 660,000-750,000t, up from 560,000t in FY2026, an increase of roughly 30%. That step-up is spread across three separate operations, each with its own volume trajectory, cost profile, and development trigger.

Wodgina carries the guidance, with volumes up 14-23% and FOB costs guided lower at A$640-710/t, down from A$738/t in FY2026. Mount Marion moves the other way on cost, guided to A$960-1,020/t against A$847/t last year, reflecting a A$490 million expansion involving a new flotation plant and underground development, with first underground ore anticipated in the April-June 2027 quarter. Bald Hill, restarted in May 2026, is guided to reach its full 140,000t SC6 nameplate by the end of the October-December 2026 quarter.

The higher volumes do not guarantee wider margins. Two of the three sites carry rising unit costs, so the earnings uplift depends on where the spodumene price lands, not just on tonnes shipped.

POSCO deal structure and what it means for MinRes’ funding position

The transaction that funds this growth is a joint venture with POSCO Holdings, and the structure is worth reading carefully.

The POSCO joint venture structure gives MinRes a capital injection of approximately A$1.2 billion while preserving operational control, a design that reflects how majors are structuring lithium supply deals to satisfy offtake needs without ceding mine operatorship.

The key elements:

1. POSCO pays US$765 million (approximately A$1.2 billion) in upfront cash for a 30% stake in a new joint venture entity.
2. That JV holds MinRes’ existing 50% interests in Wodgina and Mount Marion, so POSCO’s stake equates to an indirect 15% interest in each mine.
3. MinRes retains 70% of the JV and remains operator of both operations, keeping rights to 70% of the JV’s spodumene output while POSCO secures the remaining 30%.
4. Completion is expected in H1 FY2027, with sources referencing timing up to June 2027; both windows fall within FY2027.

The cash injection arriving during FY2027 is the financial bridge that lets MinRes fund the Mount Marion expansion and the Bald Hill ramp at the same time without forcing a choice between growth and balance sheet repair. The caveat you should hold onto is conditionality: the deal remains subject to FIRB approval and completion of the corporate restructure, and any delay pushes back when the US$765 million actually lands.

Australia’s foreign investment policy administered through FIRB subjects major inbound transactions to a national interest assessment, a process that can add months to deal timelines when assets touch critical minerals or strategic infrastructure.

Copper signals where management thinks the next decade’s value lies

The copper move is not a rejection of lithium and iron ore. It is a statement about where management believes durable value now sits.

CEO Chris Ellison used the FY2026 results call to flag the next stage of growth: acquiring at least one copper project and extending Mining Services internationally. The company has formally stated it will prioritise copper investment over lithium and iron ore over the medium term.

“[We do not want to] grow too much more in lithium or iron ore.” Chris Ellison, Chief Executive Officer, Mineral Resources, FY2026 results call, 27 August 2026

The logic behind the pivot rests on three pillars:

The ASX copper investment landscape has shifted materially in 2026, with a growing number of producers and explorers attracting institutional interest as electrification demand projections harden into bankable long-term supply assumptions.

• Electrification demand: structural, grid-driven copper demand that peers are also chasing. BHP plans to grow its copper business by approximately 5% per year to FY2035.
• Diversification intent: management’s stated preference to add a commodity with more predictable long-term demand rather than concentrate further in its existing mix.
• Capital capacity: record cashflows plus the incoming POSCO proceeds create the balance sheet room to pursue copper without starving existing operations.

The clearest reason to diversify sits in MinRes’ own numbers. Its attributable post-POSCO lithium EBITDA sensitivity runs from roughly US$200 million at US$1,000/t spodumene to over US$1.6 billion at US$3,000/t.

That swing tells you why management wants copper exposure now. The current price environment is generating the capital to buy into a commodity with steadier long-term demand, before the lithium cycle turns again. No specific asset or deal has been announced, so this remains a statement of strategic intent rather than a transaction you can price today.

What the FY2027 plan delivers if markets hold, and where it breaks down if they do not

Strip away the record earnings, and three variables will decide whether FY2027 matches guidance: the spodumene price, Onslow’s run-rate execution above nameplate, and POSCO transaction timing.

The analyst range on lithium prices is genuinely wide. The forecasts investors are weighing include:

Spodumene price dynamics in 2026 reflect a market recovering from oversupply rather than a demand-driven re-rating, which is why the analyst range on FY2027 price assumptions remains wide and why MinRes’ EBITDA sensitivity swings so sharply across scenarios.

• Argonaut: FY2027 average of approximately US$1,758/t, with prices dipping below US$2,000/t during 2027 before recovering in 2029
• Bell Potter: target price upgrades of 15-72% across major Australian lithium producers, including MinRes, after spodumene broke above US$2,000/t
• Australia’s Office of the Chief Economist: spodumene around US$2,240/t in 2026

The cost side reinforces the point that volume does not equal margin. Onslow FOB costs are guided up to roughly A$56/t from A$52/t, and Mount Marion rises to A$960-1,020/t from A$847/t on the back of its A$490 million expansion.

The distinction you need to hold is between what MinRes controls and what it does not. Volumes, cost trajectory, and capital allocation sit inside management’s grip. Commodity prices and regulatory timing do not, and with an EBITDA swing of more than US$1.4 billion riding on the spodumene price, the FY2027 result will be written by the lithium market more than by any operational decision.

A pivot year built on record earnings, but priced for conditions that could shift

MinRes enters FY2027 better capitalised, more operationally mature, and more deliberately positioned than at any point in its recent history. The record A$2.6 billion EBITDA base, upgraded volume guidance across iron ore and lithium, incoming POSCO capital, and a declared copper ambition together describe a company at a genuine inflection point.

The near-term checkpoints that will show whether that positioning is tracking:

• Bald Hill full nameplate target: end of the October-December 2026 quarter
• POSCO deal close: H1 FY2027, with timing referenced up to June 2027
• First underground ore at Mount Marion: April-June 2027 quarter

Those three milestones will tell you within six months whether guidance is holding or starting to slip, making the December 2026 quarter update the first real test of the plan. The operational momentum is real, but so is the commodity price dependency that sits underneath it.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Financial projections are subject to market conditions and various risk factors. Forward-looking statements are speculative and subject to change based on market developments and company performance.