How to Evaluate Mineral Sands Producers Before You Invest

Most investors assume a miner’s fortunes track a single commodity price. Mineral sands mining doesn’t work that way: one pit yields several products, and the cheapest, highest-volume mineral is often not the one paying the bills. At Iluka Resources, zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile generated more than 90% of product revenue in both 2024 and 2025. That is the starting point for any mineral sands investment decision.

All three of these minerals fell in price during 2025. Readings through 2026 show only modest stabilisation in selected periods. When every price is weak at once, the producers that hold up are usually the ones with the right product mix, not the ones digging the most sand.

That makes basket structure the first thing to check. This applies whether you are looking at a producer listed in Sydney, London or New York, operating in Australia, Mozambique or Sierra Leone.

This guide shows you how to read a producer’s product mix, contract cover and jurisdiction before you commit capital. It also explains why those three factors tell you more than any headline price.

How mineral sands deposits become saleable products

Start with the sand itself. Mineral sands deposits form along coastlines and in aeolian (wind-deposited) dunes. Heavy minerals typically make up only 1-10% of the material. Everything else is ordinary sand that has to be removed before anything can be sold.

Before you compare producers, it helps to see how heavy mineral sand mining feeds paint, ceramics and motor supply chains, because each end market pulls on a different mineral in your basket.

Here is how a deposit becomes a set of products:

1. Mining: dredges or dry mining equipment excavate the ore-bearing sand.
2. Wet concentration: a wet concentrator plant uses water and gravity to strip out light sand.
3. Concentrate output: what remains is heavy mineral concentrate.
4. Mineral separation: a separate plant splits that concentrate into rutile, ilmenite and zircon, using magnetic, electrostatic and gravity methods.
5. Sale: each product is shipped to different buyers at different prices.

What is HMC? Heavy mineral concentrate (HMC) is the mixture of valuable heavy minerals left after the wet concentrator removes most of the worthless sand.

Because separation always yields several products, every deposit produces a basket. At Kenmare Resources, 1,446,600 t of HMC in 2024 produced 1,008,900 t of ilmenite. Roughly seven in every ten tonnes of concentrate became the lowest-priced product.

New projects show how different a basket can look. Iluka’s Balranald project in New South Wales is designed to produce 60 ktpa of natural rutile and 50 ktpa of zircon over a 10-year life. Grade and mineral assemblage, not tonnage alone, decide what a project is worth to you.

Why Australia leads, and why it is not the only story

Australia’s lead comes from extensive coastal and aeolian deposits and from processing infrastructure that has been in place for decades. Supply is global, though. Kenmare runs the Moma mine in Mozambique. In Sierra Leone, the Kinetic project is expected to produce about 220,000 t of heavy mineral sand a year at full run-rate, with material grades of 30-45% rutile.

That Kinetic grade matters for your comparisons. African deposits can be just as rutile-rich as Australian ones, so you should not assume premium baskets exist only in one country.

Bundle economics: why one tonne of sand is not one price

If ilmenite makes up most of the tonnage, you might expect it to drive most of the revenue. The price list shows why it doesn’t.

These benchmarks come from Image Resources, reported in March 2026. In 2025, a tonne of zircon was worth about six tonnes of ilmenite.

The gap between a US$1,200/t product and a US$300/t product reflects differences in titanium ore types, including grade and the cost of upgrading ilmenite, which is why you should weigh the mix before the volume.

Sources disagree on rutile. Dataintelo puts 2025 natural rutile at US$1,100-1,300/t. The Image figure is the more recent named benchmark, which is why it appears in the table.

Your revenue per tonne therefore depends on the grade and mix of the basket. Two producers can take a very different approach to the same sand:

• Iluka (premium-weighted): zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile brought in $1,043.4M in 2024 against $85.1M from ilmenite and other products. In 2025 the split was $908M against $67M (Australian dollars).
• Kenmare (ilmenite-led): ilmenite is the primary product by tonnage, at more than 1 Mt in 2024. Zircon, rutile and concentrate are treated as co-products.

Key statistic More than 90% of Iluka’s product revenue came from zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile in both 2024 and 2025.

Two producers with identical tonnage can end up with very different margins. Check the mix before you check the volume.

How contracts and one-off sales distort the picture

Iluka has around 200 ktpa of synthetic rutile under take-or-pay contracts through the end of 2026. Under a take-or-pay contract, the buyer must pay for agreed volumes whether or not it collects them, which steadies cash flow when spot prices swing.

Tronox Holdings shows the opposite effect. Its titanium feedstock revenue fell about 40% in Q4 2024 because earlier opportunistic sales of ilmenite and HMC tailings did not repeat. Low-priced ilmenite sold aggressively can lift revenue for a quarter without adding margin resilience, so look for which revenue is contracted and which is one-off.

Who controls supply, and what drives demand

The mix tells you how a producer earns money. The market structure tells you who it is competing with and who it is selling to.

A three-company oligopoly

Tronox, Iluka and Kenmare are the three largest mineral sands producers. Reliable market share figures are not available, and no institutional analysis of concentration risk was found. Treat “oligopoly” as a description of the structure, not a measured share.

New supply is arriving. Kinetic’s initial 2026 output is expected at about 26,000 t during ramp-up, and Balranald began mining in January 2026.

Three demand engines

• Pigment: titanium dioxide pigment for paints and coatings drives demand for ilmenite and rutile. Pigment markets were soft through 2025 and 2026.
• Aerospace titanium: draws on titanium-bearing feedstock, though producer commentary on this market for 2024-2026 was limited. Don’t build your thesis on it.
• Ceramics and refractories: ceramics account for about 52% of zircon demand. Refractories are heat-resistant linings used in furnaces.

Dataintelo reported zircon stabilising around US$1,750-1,900/t in 2025 as ceramics demand recovered in China and India. Keep in mind that Australian free-on-board (FOB) prices, which exclude freight, generally sit above Asian cost-insurance-freight equivalents for comparable material.

Pigment softness is showing up in results. Tronox posted Q2 2026 revenue of US$868M, up 19% year-on-year, but it is still reporting net losses.

Concentrated supply gives producers some pricing discipline. Recovery still depends on the pigment and ceramics cycles, so when you buy a producer, ask which of those cycles you are really betting on.

How to evaluate mineral sands stocks and the risks that matter

The 2025 numbers show how quickly margins can compress. At Kenmare, 2024 revenue fell 10% to US$392.1M as prices dropped 14%, even though shipments rose 4%. EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) reached US$157M.

In 2025, revenue fell 20% to US$312.1M, with shipments down 13%, prices down 6% and ilmenite production down 17%.

Margin compression Kenmare’s EBITDA margin fell from 41% in H1 2024 to 19% in 2025.

The premium basket cushioned Iluka but did not protect it fully. Mineral sands revenue fell 13.5% to $976M in 2025, with underlying EBITDA of $300M (a 31% margin). The company also recorded a net loss after impairments and suspended some production late in the year. H1 2026 revenue was about $456M.

Tronox’s FY2025 revenue of about US$2.9bn came in below its US$3.0-3.4bn guidance, after a FY2024 net loss of US$54M.

Use these six checks on any producer:

1. Basket mix: what share of revenue comes from zircon and rutile rather than ilmenite.
2. Contract cover: how much volume sits under take-or-pay agreements, and until when.
3. Cost position: whether the producer can stay profitable at cycle-low prices.
4. Jurisdiction: where the mine sits and how stable that country is.
5. Mine life and grade: how many years of reserves remain, and at what heavy mineral content.
6. Balance sheet: whether the company can fund itself through a weak year without raising capital.

Risks that do not show up in the price chart

Price swings are easy to see: zircon ranged between US$1,400 and US$2,800/t over 2022-2025. Other risks are less visible. Supply from mature Australian deposits is tightening, which points to depletion and rising costs, although no quantified cost inflation data was found.

Kenmare’s Moma mine sits in northern Mozambique, generally a higher-risk jurisdiction than Australia. No specific incidents there between 2024 and 2026 were identified. One-off sales can also flatter reported revenue, and the research found no commentary on competition from Chinese titanium feedstock.

A producer that looks cheap after a price fall may simply be carrying a weak mix or concentrated jurisdiction risk. Test both before you assume a recovery.

For readers wanting to extend the six-point framework, our dedicated guide to evaluating titanium mining companies shows how to compare feedstock producers across the wider titanium supply chain.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Price projections and contract outcomes are subject to market conditions and various risk factors.

Reading the cycle: what to weigh before committing capital

Basket composition, contract cover and jurisdiction tell you more about a mineral sands producer than any single commodity price. Iluka’s premium weighting cushioned a difficult 2025, while Kenmare’s ilmenite-led basket left its margin more exposed.

All three minerals fell in 2025 and have recovered only modestly in selected 2026 periods. That makes timing and patience part of your decision.

Your next step is to build a watchlist using the six-point framework. Compare producers on mix and margin resilience, and follow quarterly realised price disclosures to see whether contracted prices, such as Iluka’s firming zircon contracts, flow through to results.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.