Condor Energy Raya West Prospect Exceeds 900 Million Barrels

Condor Energy Strikes Oil Gold with Monster 900 Million Barrel Prospect

Condor Energy (ASX: CND) has delivered what could be a game-changing announcement for investors, unveiling the Raya West extension that catapults their Greater Raya Prospect beyond the 900 million barrel threshold. This massive prospect positions the Perth-based oil explorer among the most significant offshore opportunities in Peru’s lucrative Tumbes Basin.

The newly identified Condor Energy Raya West prospect adds 341 million barrels (273 million barrels net to Condor) of Best Estimate 2U Prospective Resources. Furthermore, this combines with the existing Raya Prospect to create a 916 million barrel gross unrisked opportunity that demands serious investor attention.

“The definition of Raya West materially strengthens the scale and quality of Condor’s exploration portfolio. Together, Raya and Raya West now form a Greater Raya prospect containing more than 900 million barrels of gross unrisked 2U Prospective Resources, creating a highly material and attractive drilling opportunity within the Tumbes Basin,” stated Managing Director Serge Hayon.

Portfolio Power: 3.3 Billion Barrels and Counting

The Condor Energy Raya West prospect doesn’t just enhance a single prospect—it elevates Condor’s entire exploration portfolio to over 3.3 billion barrels of gross unrisked 2U Prospective Resources across six high-graded prospects. In addition, this scale transformation puts the company in rarefied air among ASX-listed oil explorers.

The strategic clustering of these prospects within the same basin creates compelling economies of scale for future development. Moreover, it significantly enhances the portfolio’s attractiveness to potential farm-in partners.

Understanding AVO: The Technology Behind the Prospect

Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO) analysis represents one of modern oil exploration’s most powerful tools for identifying hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs before drilling. This seismic technique measures how reflected sound waves change with distance, providing crucial insights into rock properties and fluid content.

The technology works by sending sound waves into the earth and measuring how these waves reflect off different rock layers. However, the key insight is that hydrocarbon-bearing rocks reflect seismic waves differently than water-bearing rocks, particularly when the angle of the reflected wave changes.

At Raya West, Condor identified multiple stacked Class II and III AVO anomalies within the proven Zorritos Formation. These signatures are particularly exciting because they indicate:

• Thick reservoir sands (greater than 25 metres)
• Hydrocarbon-bearing intervals consistent with oil accumulations
• Multiple stacked targets providing drilling optionality

What Do Class II and III AVO Responses Mean?

Class II AVO Response occurs when seismic amplitudes initially decrease then increase with offset distance. Typically, this indicates oil-saturated sandstones with moderate impedance contrasts.

Class III AVO Response shows strong amplitude increases with offset. Often, this is associated with gas-bearing or very light oil reservoirs where the impedance contrast is pronounced.

The technology’s reliability is enhanced by nearby shallow gas accumulations that exhibit strong Class III AVO responses. These serve as valuable calibration points within the same seismic dataset. Consequently, this geological “proof of concept” significantly de-risks the interpretation at Raya West.

Strategic Location in Peru’s Proven Basin

Condor’s TEA LXXXVI covers nearly the entire Peruvian offshore Tumbes Basin across 4,858 square kilometres in water depths between 50-1,500 metres. The location’s strategic value cannot be overstated, particularly given Peru’s established oil and gas infrastructure.

Proven Petroleum System

The region boasts a proven petroleum system with multiple advantages:

• Surrounded by multiple historic and producing oil/gas fields
• Contains the undeveloped Piedra Redonda gas field with 1 Tcf of natural gas
• Established infrastructure and regulatory framework

Technical Advantages

The location offers several technical benefits:

• Shallow to moderate water depths reduce drilling costs
• Multiple exploration targets provide drilling flexibility
• Extensive 2D and 3D seismic coverage supports detailed prospect mapping

Partnership Appeal

The strategic positioning enhances partnership opportunities:

• Scale and quality attract major oil companies for farm-in opportunities
• LAB Energy Advisors managing ongoing partnership discussions
• 80% working interest provides meaningful exposure whilst allowing partnership flexibility

What Are Prospective Resources?

Prospective Resources represent estimated quantities of petroleum that may potentially be recovered from undiscovered accumulations. These estimates carry both discovery risk (whether hydrocarbons exist) and development risk (whether any discovery can be commercially extracted).

The classification system uses probability ranges:

• Low Estimate (1U) – 90% chance actual resources exceed this amount
• Best Estimate (2U) – 50% chance actual resources exceed this amount
• High Estimate (3U) – 10% chance actual resources exceed this amount

For the Condor Energy Raya West prospect, the 32% Geological Chance of Success indicates the probability that drilling will discover commercially viable hydrocarbons. This success rate aligns with industry standards for mature exploration provinces with established petroleum systems.

The “unrisked” terminology means these resource estimates haven’t been adjusted for the probability of prospect. Therefore, they represent potential volumes if hydrocarbons are present as interpreted from seismic data.

Next Steps: From Prospect to Development

Condor’s technical team, supported by advisory firm Havoc Partners, has established a robust foundation for the next phase of exploration activity. The company’s systematic approach to prospect maturation creates multiple pathways forward.

Immediate Priorities

The company has identified several immediate focus areas:

1. 1. Partner Engagement – Ongoing discussions managed by LAB Energy Advisors

1. 1. Technical Integration – Further seismic analysis across the Greater Raya complex

1. 1. Drilling Planning – Site selection and timing for high-impact exploration wells

Medium-Term Catalysts

Several medium-term opportunities could drive value:

• Farm-in agreement with major oil company partner
• Environmental and regulatory approvals for drilling programme
• Spud date announcement for Greater Raya exploration well
• Additional prospect maturation across the six-prospect portfolio

The 32% Geological Chance of Success for Greater Raya, combined with the 916 million barrel resource potential, creates compelling risk-adjusted returns. These metrics should attract quality partners with deep drilling experience in offshore Peru.

Investment Thesis: Scale Meets Opportunity

Condor Energy presents a compelling investment proposition built on four key pillars that differentiate it from typical ASX oil explorers.

Unprecedented Scale

The 3.3 billion barrel gross portfolio rivals the largest independent oil companies globally, yet trades at a fraction of comparable valuations. This scale provides multiple shots at transformational discoveries whilst spreading geological risk across six distinct prospects.

Strategic Geographic Position

Operating in Peru’s established Tumbes Basin offers significant advantages over frontier exploration plays. The combination of proven petroleum systems, existing infrastructure, and established regulatory frameworks dramatically reduces non-geological risks. These risks plague many emerging market opportunities.

Technical Excellence

The systematic application of advanced seismic technologies like AVO analysis demonstrates technical rigour. Combined with independent validation by NSAI (except for the Condor Energy Raya West prospect), this should inspire confidence in resource estimates and drilling target selection.

Partnership Optionality

With 80% working interest in the TEA, Condor maintains significant exposure whilst offering meaningful partnership opportunities. The involvement of specialist advisory firm LAB Energy Advisors signals serious intent to secure quality farm-in partners.

Why Smart Money Should Track Condor Energy

The oil exploration sector rewards scale, technical competence, and strategic positioning—three attributes Condor Energy demonstrates in abundance. The Condor Energy Raya West prospect represents more than just additional barrels; it validates the company’s systematic approach to prospect identification and technical evaluation.

Catalyst-Rich Environment

The coming 12-18 months promise multiple value inflection points, from partnership announcements to drilling commencement. Each milestone offers the potential for significant share price re-rating as the market recognises the true scale and quality of Condor’s portfolio.

Competitive Valuation

Trading at a substantial discount to international oil exploration peers with similar resource bases, Condor offers asymmetric risk-reward characteristics. These appeal to both growth and value investors seeking exposure to large-scale oil exploration.

Management Credibility

Led by Managing Director Serge Hayon, whose 25+ years of experience spans exploration, development, and commercial evaluation, the team demonstrates the technical depth required. This expertise is essential to advance complex offshore projects through to development.

Condor Energy has assembled one of the ASX’s largest oil exploration portfolios in a proven basin with established infrastructure. The 900+ million barrel Greater Raya prospect, combined with ongoing partnership discussions, positions the company for potential transformational value creation over the next 18 months. Investors seeking leveraged exposure to large-scale oil exploration should maintain close attention to upcoming partnership and drilling announcements.

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