Coda Minerals Eyes Shallow Copper Upside at Oakden, Elizabeth Creek
Coda Minerals Limited (ASX: COD) has released a compelling update to its Coda Minerals Ltd copper-silver project economics, driven by significant commodity price movements since the August 2025 Scoping Study. The revised figures showcase the project's exceptional leverage to both copper and silver prices, with pre-tax NPV increasing from $1.29 billion to $2.25 billion and IRR jumping from 39% to 56% under conservative long-term pricing assumptions.
This update reflects material changes in market conditions, with copper prices rising from the previous assumption of US$9,260 per tonne to US$10,500 per tonne. Furthermore, silver assumptions have doubled from US$30 per ounce to US$60 per ounce.
At current spot prices of approximately US$13,108 per tonne for copper and US$82 per ounce for silver, the project's pre-tax NPV soars to approximately $3.32 billion with an IRR of 74%.
The updated economics demonstrate the project's robust fundamentals across multiple scenarios. In addition, the figures reveal significant improvements in key financial metrics compared to the previous study.
| Scenario | Pre-tax NPV ($M) | Pre-tax IRR (%) | Post-tax NPV ($M) | Post-tax IRR (%) | Payback Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Updated Base Case | 2,250 | 56% | 1,521 | 43% | 2.5 years |
| Current Spot Prices | 3,320 | 74% | 2,280 | 57% | 1.75 years |
| Previous Study (Aug 2025) | 1,289 | 39% | 855 | 30% | 3.25 years |
The project demonstrates exceptional price sensitivity, with each US$1,000 per tonne change in copper price impacting base case NPV by approximately $377 million. However, each US$10 per ounce change in silver price impacts NPV by approximately $165 million.
Elizabeth Creek has evolved into a simplified copper-silver operation, moving away from the previous multi-commodity approach that included cobalt. Consequently, this strategic shift offers several advantages:
The revised commodity split shows copper contributing approximately 78% of lifetime revenue (compared to 85% previously). For instance, silver increases to 20% (from 12% previously), providing attractive exposure to both metals driving the energy transition.
Elizabeth Creek is planned as a long-life operation producing substantial quantities of both primary commodities. Furthermore, the operation benefits from a diversified resource base across multiple deposits.
The mine plan produces:
The mine plan incorporates four deposits across the project area:
The project employs whole-ore chloride leach technology, a proven metallurgical process that offers significant advantages over traditional flotation methods. This technology involves grinding ore and leaching metals directly using chloride solutions, eliminating the need for flotation circuits.
Whole-ore leach technology treats crushed ore directly in acidic chloride solutions, dissolving copper and silver minerals without the complex flotation steps required in conventional processing. The dissolved metals are then recovered through solvent extraction and electrowinning for copper, and precipitation followed by refining for silver.
Whole-ore leach delivers higher recoveries for both copper and silver while simplifying the processing flowsheet. This translates to improved economics, reduced technical risk, and potentially lower capital requirements compared to more complex processing routes.
The technology has been successfully implemented at operations worldwide, providing confidence in its application to Elizabeth Creek's ore types.
With $11.25 million cash at the end of December 2025, Coda is well-positioned to advance the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) currently underway. However, the company continues to explore additional funding opportunities to accelerate development.
CEO Chris Stevens highlighted the timing opportunity:
We believe the timing could not be better to be progressing Elizabeth Creek through advanced study stages, and we look forward to providing shareholders with further PFS updates as the project continues to be de-risked. – Chris Stevens, Chief Executive Officer
The company has established a comprehensive project dataroom and is actively engaging with potential strategic partners. In addition, discussions include end users, OEMs, and trading houses across South Korea, Japan, and Europe.
Elizabeth Creek benefits from its location in South Australia's established mining region. Furthermore, the project enjoys excellent connectivity to major transport corridors and power infrastructure.
Key infrastructure advantages include:
A proposed 43km, 132kV transmission line would connect the Mt Gunson substation to the process plant at Emmie Bluff. This connection runs parallel with the haul road supporting open pit operations.
The revised economics arrive at a time when both copper and silver fundamentals are increasingly attractive. Moreover, structural supply constraints are emerging across both commodity markets.
The company's conservative base-case copper price of US$10,500/t sits within the range of long-term consensus forecasts published by major investment banks. These forecasts generally range from US$9,500–11,500/t, while remaining approximately 20% below current spot prices.
The project's sensitivity analysis reveals significant leverage to commodity price movements across realistic market scenarios. At the updated base case assumptions, Elizabeth Creek generates robust returns with post-tax NPV of $1.52 billion and IRR of 43%.
| Price Scenario | Copper (US$/t) | Silver (US$/oz) | Pre-tax NPV ($M) | Post-tax IRR (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Base | 10,500 | 60 | 2,250 | 43% |
| Current Spot | 13,108 | 82 | 3,320 | 57% |
Capital payback periods demonstrate the project's cash generation potential, with the base case scenario achieving payback within 2.5 years from first production. However, this improves to 1.75 years at current spot prices.
Elizabeth Creek's copper-silver focus aligns directly with critical minerals driving the global energy transition. Copper demand is experiencing structural growth from electrification initiatives, whilst silver consumption from photovoltaic installations continues expanding.
The project's metallurgy supports production of copper cathode and silver doré, providing direct exposure to commodity markets without complex downstream processing requirements. Consequently, this approach reduces technical risk whilst maximising value capture from both metals.
Elizabeth Creek represents a compelling combination of attractive investment characteristics. Furthermore, the project benefits from several competitive advantages that differentiate it from other development opportunities.
Key investment highlights include:
Exceptional price leverage: Demonstrated sensitivity to commodity price movements with current spot prices delivering IRRs above 70%
Proven metallurgy: Whole-ore leach technology offering simplified processing with high recoveries
Diversified production: Exposure to both copper and silver provides natural hedge against single-commodity volatility
Strong resource base: 87% Indicated Resources supporting development confidence
Strategic location: South Australian jurisdiction with excellent infrastructure and regulatory clarity
Advancing studies: Well-funded PFS progression with experienced management team
Coda's transparent approach to updating project economics based on material market changes demonstrates management's commitment to keeping shareholders informed of value-creating developments. As copper and silver markets continue to tighten amid the global energy transition, the Coda Minerals Ltd copper-silver project's robust economics and strategic position make it worthy of close investor attention.
The company's positioning benefits from South Australia's established mining infrastructure, with the Stuart Highway and Adelaide-Darwin rail line providing transport access. In addition, nearby electrical substations offer potential grid power connections. These infrastructure advantages reduce development risks and capital requirements compared to more remote locations.
Elizabeth Creek's combination of exceptional commodity price leverage, proven processing technology, and strategic infrastructure positioning creates a compelling development opportunity in the critical minerals space. The project's robust economics under conservative pricing assumptions, combined with significant upside at current market levels, demonstrates the potential for substantial shareholder value creation as the energy transition accelerates global copper and silver demand.
With Elizabeth Creek delivering remarkable project economics and exceptional leverage to surging copper and silver prices, Coda Minerals presents a compelling investment case in the critical minerals space. The company's transparent approach to updating shareholders on material developments, combined with robust fundamentals and strategic positioning, makes this an opportunity worth investigating further. Discover more about Coda Minerals' copper-silver project and its potential for substantial value creation by visiting www.codaminerals.com.