Ramelius Resources Eyes 600koz Gold and $2bn Annual Cash Flow by FY30
Key Takeaways
- Ramelius Resources is targeting 560–610koz of annual gold production by FY30, representing 205% growth from FY26, driven by the Mt Magnet brownfield expansion and the greenfield Rebecca-Roe project.
- FY27 guidance is set at 205–225koz at an AISC of A$2,150–2,350/oz, sourced entirely from Mt Magnet at its current 2Mtpa capacity and based exclusively on Ore Reserves with no reliance on Inferred resources.
- The Mt Magnet mill is being expanded from 2.0Mtpa to 4.3–5.0Mtpa at a total capital cost of A$340–360m, with exploration success already lifting expected mill grade from 2.9g/t to 3.4g/t — adding +60koz (+16%) to FY30 output.
- Rebecca-Roe's critical remaining gating item is Roe environmental approval, expected in the December 2026 quarter, with construction scheduled to begin in December 2027 and first gold targeted for Q4CY28.
- At A$6,000/oz gold, FY30 free cash flow is projected to approach A$2bn, with Ramelius screening at a 22% FY30E FCF yield — second among ASX and TSX gold producers with market caps above A$5bn.
Ramelius sets sights on 600koz+ gold production by FY30
In its 4-Year Outlook and FY27 Guidance presentation released 21 September 2026, Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS) outlined an ambitious production growth plan targeting 560–610koz of annual gold output by FY30, up from 205–225koz guided for FY27. That trajectory represents 205% production growth from FY26 to FY30, with management emphasising that margins are expected to be maintained through the expansion.
Two growth engines underpin the plan: the Mt Magnet Hub, a brownfield expansion already underway in the Murchison region of Western Australia, and the Rebecca-Roe Project, a greenfield development approximately 150km east of Kalgoorlie. The company enters this growth phase with an A$6.8bn market capitalisation, A$1bn in cash, gold and investments, and a 14Moz Mineral Resource base supporting long mine life.
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FY27 guidance and the four-year production staircase
FY27 guidance — building from a strong base
The presentation detailed FY27 guidance of 205–225koz gold production at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC — the total cost per ounce to produce gold, including sustaining capital) of A$2,150–2,350/oz, sourced entirely from Mt Magnet at its current mill capacity of 2Mtpa (million tonnes per annum). Mill grade guidance for FY27 is 3.80g/t, with exploration spend of A$90–110m targeting 0.85–1.6Moz of exploration results. Management confirmed FY27 guidance is based exclusively on Ore Reserves, with no reliance on Inferred resources.
The production staircase to FY30
The central data set of the presentation is the staged production ramp. Rebecca-Roe contributes no production in FY27 or FY28, with first gold from that project expected in Q4CY28.
| Period | Mt Magnet (koz) | Rebecca-Roe (koz) | Total Group (koz) | AISC (A$/oz) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY27E | 205–225 | — | 205–225 | 2,150–2,350 |
| FY28E | 250–300 | — | 250–300 | 2,000–2,300 |
| FY29E | 335–375 | 75–85 | 410–460 | 2,400–2,700 |
| FY30E | 420–460 | 140–150 | 560–610 | 2,100–2,400 |
A key dynamic highlighted in the presentation is that group AISC remains broadly range-bound at A$2,100–2,400/oz even as production roughly triples, a signal of margin discipline through scale. The FY29 AISC temporarily steps up to A$2,400–2,700/oz during the Rebecca-Roe ramp-up phase, before normalising to A$2,100–2,400/oz in FY30.
What is driving the growth — and why it matters to investors
Mt Magnet Hub — brownfield expansion already underway
Mt Magnet is the near-term production engine. Currently operating at 2.0Mtpa, the mill is being upgraded to 4.3–5.0Mtpa — more than doubling throughput capacity. The presentation detailed total processing plant expansion capital of A$340–360m (current estimate including contingency), up from a Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) estimate of A$223m.
The reconciliation between those two figures reflects estimate maturity, updated EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) pricing, scope enhancements including sealed haul roads and power and water upgrades, and additional contingency. FY27 plant and equipment capital for Mt Magnet is guided at A$325–365m, with a further A$35–45m in FY28 specifically relating to the Circuit 1/2 processing plant expansion component.
Exploration success has already improved the quality of expected mill feed. The 2025 mine plan assumed throughput of 4.3Mt at 2.9g/t; the current plan assumes 4.3Mt at 3.4g/t — the same mill throughput delivering an additional +60koz (+16%) of gold production in FY30, with 1.3Mt of low-grade feed displaced by higher-grade ore.
Rebecca-Roe — the greenfield growth kicker
The presentation outlined Rebecca-Roe as the second major growth driver, hosting a 3Moz Mineral Resource (67Mt at 1.5g/t). The Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is complete and a Final Investment Decision (FID) has been obtained, subject to environmental permitting for the Roe component of the project. FID — the point at which a company formally commits to proceeding with a major capital project — means the critical remaining gating item for investors to monitor is the Roe environmental approval, expected in the December 2026 quarter. Rebecca permitting has already been received.
Construction of the processing plant is scheduled to commence in the December 2027 quarter, with first gold targeted for Q4CY28. Rebecca-Roe is forecast to average 135koz per annum, contributing 140–150koz in FY30, at a life-of-mine AISC of A$2,625/oz. The presentation noted FY27 growth capital guidance for Rebecca-Roe of A$65–75m, with approximately A$50m brought forward from FY28 to de-risk project delivery.
The investment case — scale, cash and capital returns
Free cash flow — the scale dividend
The presentation projected annual free cash flow (FCF) of A$1.5–1.8bn by FY30, based on a gold price assumption of A$5,500–6,000/oz. At A$6,000/oz, FY30 FCF is projected to approach A$2bn. The FCF outlook by year reflects the heavy capital investment phase in FY27 and FY28, before a sharp inflection in FY29 as major construction spend winds down.
- FY27E: Total FCF A$140–200m (peak Mt Magnet construction spend)
- FY28E: Total FCF A$100–120m (Rebecca-Roe construction ramp)
- FY29E: Total FCF A$830m–1,020m (inflection point as major capex concludes)
- FY30E: FCF approaching A$2bn at A$6,000/oz
Scale in focus
Ramelius targets 205% production growth from FY26 to FY30, with projected annual free cash flow of A$1.5–1.8bn by FY30 — while keeping AISC broadly range-bound at A$2,100–2,400/oz.
Among ASX and TSX-listed gold producers with market capitalisations above A$5bn, the presentation highlighted that Ramelius screens at a projected 22% FY30E FCF yield, placing it second among that peer group.
Track record and capital returns
The presentation highlighted six consecutive years of meeting or beating production guidance from 2021 to 2026, with FY24 and FY25 representing outright beats against the guided range. In FY26, the company returned A$255m to shareholders, representing 65% of underlying FY26 FCF, while continuing to invest in growth. Over eight years, Ramelius has paid A$376m in dividends and completed A$150m in buybacks. Management also highlighted an average historical return on investment of approximately ~270% and an average historical internal rate of return of approximately ~50%. Ramelius is targeting a first-third cost position among gold producers in Tier-1 jurisdictions in CY27.
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Exploration upside — the path beyond FY30
The presentation explicitly positioned FY30 as the new base case, with management noting material upside from grade displacement, resource conversion and continued exploration success. Key project-level upside includes:
- Galaxy: An Exploration Target of 400–600koz; Mars and Saturn zones remain open at depth; A$21m FY27 exploration budget allocated
- Cue: Lena underground resource grew from 110koz to 230koz in FY26; Break of Day underground grew from 72koz to 110koz; A$16m FY27 drill plan focused on converting Inferred resources to Indicated
- Gilbey’s UG (Dalgaranga): Scoping Study complete; production target of 220–260koz over mine life (5.2–5.8Mt at 1.5–1.7g/t); PFS to be completed FY28
- Eridanus / Franks Tower: Franks Tower drill results confirm high-grade mineralisation, including 3.6m at 113g/t and 14.8m at 54.6g/t; Eridanus underground remains open at depth
- Rebecca-Roe: Optimisation of mining schedule post-Roe approvals to improve FY29 & FY30 outcomes; high-grade underground depth extensions available
Underpinning this exploration confidence is a decade-long track record of resource growth. The presentation detailed how Ore Reserves grew from 0.4Moz in 2016 to 4.3Moz in 2026, representing approximately ~27% CAGR net of depletion. Mineral Resources grew from 2.2Moz in 2015 to 14.0Moz in 2026, a compound annual growth rate of approximately ~20% net of depletion. For investors assessing the longevity of the production profile, those rates of reserve and resource replenishment are a material part of the Ramelius investment thesis.
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