Orezone Eyes $1.05B NPV as Casa Berardi 14-Year Mine Plan Takes Shape
Key Takeaways
- The updated Casa Berardi Life-of-Mine Plan delivers a 14-year production profile of 1.63Moz at an average 116koz per year, with an after-tax NPV5% of $1.05B at base case consensus gold price and $1.43B at the current spot price of $4,350/oz.
- Orezone trades at a steep valuation discount to peers — 1.8x EV/2027 EBITDA versus a peer average of 6.2x, and 0.41x P/NAV versus a peer average of 0.88x — with analyst consensus target price of C$4.34 per share.
- Underground mining, which historically delivered 141koz per year at 7.0g/t Au between 2006 and 2016, is being deliberately re-established as the primary production driver, with the East Mine expected to recommence operations in 2029.
- A Heva-Hosco Preliminary Economic Assessment is expected in Q4 2026, covering a 1.66Moz gold mineral inventory within a 2.34Moz Measured and Indicated resource — a potential third asset for the portfolio.
- Casa Berardi has only been explored to approximately 1.5km depth against comparable Quebec and Ontario underground mines reaching 2.0–3.75km, with 90% of ounces discovered on the south side of the fault and the north side described as vastly underexplored.
Casa Berardi’s updated life-of-mine plan puts Orezone on a new trajectory
In its September 2026 investor presentation, Orezone Gold Corporation outlined an updated Life-of-Mine (LOM) plan for the Casa Berardi gold mine in Quebec, delivering a 14-year production profile anchored by the return of high-grade underground mining. The headline metrics are substantial: 1.63Moz of total gold production, an average of 116koz per year, an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,877/oz, and an after-tax NPV5% of $1.05B at the base case consensus gold price, rising to $1.43B at the spot gold price of $4,350/oz.
Casa Berardi was acquired from Hecla Mining, with the transaction closing on 25 March 2026, and now sits alongside Bomboré in Burkina Faso as a cornerstone asset. Orezone trades on the TSX and ASX under the ticker ORE, with a market capitalisation of approximately US$1.3B (C$1.8B) as at 30 August 2026.
Note: The production target is based on qualifying foreign estimates prepared under NI 43-101 and includes Inferred Mineral Resources. The Casa Berardi Mineral Resource is a foreign estimate and is not reported in accordance with the JORC Code. There is no certainty the production target will be realised.
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Bringing the underground back — the strategic logic behind the LOM plan
A mine built on underground gold
Casa Berardi is not pivoting to underground mining — it is returning to it. Through more than 30 years of production, the mine has predominantly been an underground operation. Between 2006 and 2016, sustained investment in underground exploration and development supported an average production profile of approximately 141koz per year at a head grade of approximately 7.0g/t Au.
From 2017 onwards, operations increasingly shifted toward open-pit mining. That shift came with a cost: underground head grades declined from the historical 6–9g/t range to approximately 3.4–4.1g/t between 2023 and 2025. The updated LOM plan is a deliberate re-establishment of underground mining rates.
The two-mine plan in detail
The LOM plan draws on two concurrent mining streams: underground and open pit. Underground production is expected to average approximately 80koz per year between 2030 and 2037 as historical mining rates are re-established.
| Component | Contribution | LOM Average Head Grade | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underground | 834,000oz | 4.64 g/t Au | 12 years |
| Open Pit | 797,000oz | 2.32 g/t Au | 14 years |
Key operational details from the presentation include:
- West Mine: continuous underground operations; fully permitted
- East Mine: operations expected to recommence in 2029 (active mining ceased in 2023); required technical studies have commenced
- A mining contractor has been recently mobilised to increase lateral development rates
- New equipment was delivered to site in 2026, with staged procurement continuing through to 2029
The numbers that define the opportunity
Economics at a glance
The LOM plan’s financial profile, verified directly from Appendix A of the presentation, is as follows:
- Cash costs: $1,485/oz
- AISC: $1,877/oz
- Sustaining capital: $638M
- Non-sustaining capital: $324M
- Total CAPEX: $961.6M
- After-tax NPV5% (base case): $1,046M
- After-tax NPV5% at spot ($4,350/oz): $1,426M
- After-tax LOM cash flow (base case): $1,443M
The gold price sensitivity analysis across four scenarios is presented below:
| Gold Price Scenario | After-Tax NPV5% ($M) | After-Tax LOM Cash Flow ($M) |
|---|---|---|
| -15% (below base case) | $660M | $917M |
| Base Case (consensus) | $1,046M | $1,443M |
| +15% (above base case) | $1,426M | $1,961M |
| Spot Price ($4,350/oz) | $1,426M | $2,011M |
Orezone trades at a steep discount to peers
Despite operating two mines with 2026 consolidated production guidance of 220–250koz, Orezone’s valuation multiples sit well below the peer group average. According to data sourced from S&P Capital IQ Pro and FactSet as at 30 August 2026:
- EV/2027 EBITDA: Orezone at 1.8x versus peer average of 6.2x
- P/NAV: Orezone at 0.41x versus peer average of 0.88x
- Average analyst target price: C$4.34 per share
The peer group includes producers such as Ramelius Resources, Wesdome Gold Mines, Capricorn Metals, Bellevue Gold, and Emerald Resources, among others. The discount is material by any measure, and the presentation frames this as the core re-rating thesis.
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What comes next — catalysts and the path toward >350koz
Near-term catalysts
Management outlined the following near-term milestones in the presentation:
- Heva-Hosco Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) — expected Q4 2026. Heva-Hosco carries a gold mineral inventory of 1.66Moz within a 2.34Moz Measured and Indicated resource + 0.27Moz Inferred resource. A 2012 Feasibility Study (at US$1,350/oz) outlined a production profile of 104koz per year over a 14-year mine life. Note: these economics are from a 2012 study and should not be treated as current economic guidance.
- H2 2026 production uplift — both Bomboré and Casa Berardi production are weighted toward Q3 and Q4.
- Exploration results from 11 drill rigs operating across both assets.
- Updated Bomboré Life-of-Mine plan — expected Q1 2027, incorporating an additional 100,000m of drilling.
The exploration upside that isn’t in the plan
The objective of ramping up to 100,000m of drilling per annum targets expansion beyond the baseline LOM plan, and the exploration upside from that programme is not included in the production target or forecast financial information.
Casa Berardi has only been explored to approximately 1.5km depth. For context, comparable underground gold mines in Quebec and Ontario extend considerably deeper — Red Lake to approximately 3.5km, La Ronde to approximately 3.75km, Westwood to approximately 2.0km, and Macassa to approximately 2.25km. These peer comparisons are provided for illustrative purposes only and do not imply Orezone will achieve comparable metrics.
The property covers 37km of strike along the Casa Berardi Fault, yet approximately 90% of ounces discovered to date sit on the south side of the fault. The north side is described in the presentation as vastly underexplored relative to the south.
Management has outlined an aspirational target of sustaining approximately ~150koz per year at Casa Berardi. This objective is aspirational, has no forecast timeframe, depends on exploration success, technical studies, permitting, development decisions, and financing, and does not constitute a production target under ASX Listing Rules 5.16 and 5.17.
Consolidated production outlook
The production outlook presented by management, verified directly from the source, is summarised below:
| Period | Bomboré | Casa Berardi | Consolidated |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 119koz | — | — |
| 2025E | 110koz | — | — |
| 2026F | — | — | 220–250koz |
| Aspirational Target | — | — | >350koz |
The >350koz annual production objective is aspirational, has no forecast timeframe, and is not a production target under ASX Listing Rules 5.16 and 5.17. The 2026 production guidance was confirmed in Orezone’s Q2 2026 results dated 12 August 2026.
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