Mineros Stock Trades at 2.5x EBITDA After Record Earnings

A place in an index fund does not make a stock cheap, and it does not make it expensive either. It simply changes who can buy it. That distinction matters for Mineros S.A. stock right now, because the gold producer has just posted record first-half earnings while trading at a multiple that, by its own CEO’s account, many investors have never noticed.

The numbers create the tension. Mineros reported adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, stripped of one-off items) of US$260 million for H1 2026, a company record. The company’s own peer comparison still places it near the bottom of its group on valuation.

Then came the index news. Mineros was added to four indexes tracked by the GDXJ, SGDJ, FTSE Small Cap and TEVA Colombia benchmarks, effective from the open on 21 September 2026.

Here is how the evidence separates as of 9 October 2026: what holds up on valuation, results and shareholder returns, and what remains unproven, starting with the size of any fund demand.

Why did four index inclusions put a lesser-known gold miner on more radars?

The mechanics are simple. On 14 September 2026, Mineros disclosed that it had joined four indexes:

• The MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index, tracked by VanEck’s Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)
• The Solactive Junior Gold Miners Custom Factors Index, tracked by Sprott’s Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ)
• The Small Cap segment of the FTSE Global Equity Index Series
• The TEVA Colombia Equity Index, which benchmarks the TEVAICOL fund

The changes were implemented after the close on 18 September and took effect when markets opened on 21 September. An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a fund that trades on an exchange like a share and usually tracks an index.

Because the GDXJ and SGDJ sit within a wider family of gold miners ETF structures, the way each fund weights and rebalances its constituents shapes how much any new addition can attract.

None of this was a verdict on quality. The additions followed routine semi-annual reviews, in which index providers adjust their constituents, plus a quarterly rebalance in the MVIS case. The Colombian channel is the most novel piece: TEVAICOL is the first locally managed Colombian equity ETF and began trading on the Colombian Stock Exchange on 10 September 2026. Mineros expects the fund to buy its shares.

CEO Daniel Henao framed the benefit in terms of access rather than price.

Management view Henao said the additions should widen the shareholder base by giving Mineros greater access to institutional capital and improving liquidity in its shares.

With 292.8 million shares outstanding across the TSX, the Colombian exchange (BVC) and OTCQX, and a CEO who says many investors have never heard of the company, wider visibility is a real advantage.

What the inclusions do not tell you

Nothing published indicates how much capital the four funds will put into Mineros. No current assets under management (AUM) figures were found for any of the four vehicles, and no historical examples showed how inclusion affected other miners.

No named commentator has addressed the limits of passive buying either. What this tells you is that inclusion changes who can easily own the stock, not whether it is worth owning. Any flow-driven lift cannot be sized from the available evidence.

What do record first-half 2026 results say about the business behind the shares?

If the index news widens the audience, the 5 August 2026 results give that audience something to examine. Mineros reports on a calendar year, so H1 covers January to June.

Some summaries, including Investing.com’s, round sales to 122,600 ounces and describe production as up 12%. The company figure of 122,634 is the cleaner reference.

Record result Adjusted EBITDA of US$260.475 million is the cash-generation base any re-rating argument has to stand on.

The cost line held up too. Mineros sold 118,103 gold ounces at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of US$2,348/oz. AISC is the total cost per ounce of operating a mine, including ongoing capital spending and closure costs. The company said it was tracking below guidance, and it raised 2026 production guidance to 220,000-240,000 gold-equivalent ounces from 213,000-233,000.

Cost metrics only mean something against the sector backdrop, and AISC and margin fundamentals across producers show where a US$2,348/oz result sits relative to peers in this cycle.

Two details temper the celebration.

Full-year AISC guidance sits at US$2,370-2,470/oz, above the H1 actual, which implies management expects costs to rise. The margin also trails the peer median slightly. For you, that means the stock’s discount cannot be explained away by superior profitability, and the AISC figure in the next release is the line to watch.

Is a 2.5x EV/EBITDA multiple a bargain or a warning?

The headline case for cheapness is stark. Using S&P data on a trailing twelve-month basis through 30 June 2026, the company reports an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple of 2.5x and price-to-revenue of 1.3x. Enterprise value (EV) is market value plus debt minus cash, so the multiple shows how many years of earnings the whole business costs.

Against its own set of 15 gold producers, Mineros ranks second-lowest on price-to-EBITDA and fourth-lowest on price-to-revenue, according to its September 2026 corporate presentation and Crux Investor analysis.

Two ways to calculate the multiple

Henao offers a different number. Speaking to Crux Investor’s Ryan Charles, he annualised first-half adjusted EBITDA to about US$500 million and set it against an EV of roughly US$2 billion after about US$200 million of cash and bullion. That produces about 4x, which he described as very attractive.

The gap comes from inputs. The 2.5x uses a trailing period and S&P data, while 4x uses a forward annualisation and a different EV estimate. The comparison also assigns no value to about 30 million ounces lacking economic studies. Either way, Mineros sits at the low end of the group, but the precise discount depends on which arithmetic you accept.

Reading the discount

Three explanations are possible: a jurisdiction discount for Colombia and Nicaragua, a broader risk perception tied to political or fiscal exposure, or plain mispricing. No named analyst has tested any of them in published research.

A cheap EV/EBITDA multiple is often paired with a NAV discount, and the gap between the two measures helps explain whether the market is pricing in genuine risk or simply overlooking the stock.

Coverage is thin. SCP Resource Finance, Atrium Research and Red Cloud follow the stock, one without a rating, with targets of C$9.50 and C$11.00. Moody’s rates Mineros B1 and S&P B+, both stable, which sits below investment grade.

The valuation inputs are company-sourced, and current share price and market capitalisation were not found. A cheap multiple only becomes an opportunity if you judge the jurisdiction discount to be overdone.

Can shareholder returns and a 500,000-ounce target carry a re-rating?

If the discount is to close, two forward supports would need to do the work: cash returned to shareholders and production growth.

On returns, Mineros declared US$30 million in dividends and authorised a US$175 million buyback over three years. It returned more than US$145 million to shareholders between 2021 and 2025.

The production path, as set out by management, climbs in stages:

1. 2026 guidance of 220,000-240,000 gold-equivalent ounces
2. A further 30,000-40,000 ounces next year from debottlenecking, on a profile heading toward 240,000 ounces
3. More than 300,000 ounces a year organically in the short term
4. 500,000 ounces by 2030

Ownership adds context. Mineros acquired the Hemco property in Nicaragua in 2013 and listed on the TSX in 2021. In 2025, Sun Valley Investments took control of the company and installed a fresh management team and strategy; Henao says the share price has climbed roughly 15-fold since the current owners arrived.

The 500,000-ounce figure is a management target, not a forecast. It would justify a higher multiple only if delivered, and no research was found on how Sun Valley’s control affects valuation or governance.

What the company releases leave out

The H1 and Q1 releases emphasise operational strength. They do not enumerate several risks, and no Mineros-specific commentary was found on them:

• Political and fiscal risk in Colombia and Nicaragua
• Permitting and social licence to operate
• AISC pressure, given full-year guidance above the H1 actual
• Gold-price sensitivity
• Debottlenecking and execution risk

These are gaps in the evidence rather than confirmed problems. They are also the conditions that must go right for the growth case to hold.

For investors sizing the jurisdiction discount, our dedicated guide to Colombia’s mining regulatory risk shows how royalty deductibility has shifted repeatedly in recent years.

These statements are speculative and subject to change based on market developments and company performance.

Weighing the evidence before calling a re-rating

Three points hold up: record results, a low peer multiple on either calculation, and wider access through index funds. Two remain unproven: how much fund demand will arrive, and why the market applies the discount at all.

Before forming a view, verify the current share price and market capitalisation, the AUM of the four funds, any independent analyst work beyond the C$9.50 and C$11.00 targets, and delivery against AISC and production guidance. The full-year results will test whether costs land inside the US$2,370-2,470/oz range and output inside the raised guidance.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Financial projections are subject to market conditions and various risk factors.

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