What Ma’aden Means for Investors in Saudi Arabia’s Mining Push

Saudi Arabia sells the world its oil, but in August 2026 its biggest miner reported a quarter that had nothing to do with crude. Ma’aden, the state-backed group at the centre of Saudi Arabia’s mining push, posted second-quarter revenue of about US$2.9 billion, up 16% year on year, in results released on 9 August 2026.

If you think of the Kingdom’s resource story as beginning and ending with hydrocarbons, that number should make you pause.

The government now describes mining as a “third pillar” of the economy, and Ma’aden is the main vehicle carrying that ambition. For international investors who follow resources beyond oil, the company is becoming harder to ignore. It is also more complicated than its headline growth suggests.

This explainer covers what Ma’aden actually owns, why the state is backing it so heavily, and which risks deserve most of your attention if you are weighing exposure to the Saudi mining story.

What is Ma’aden, and who actually controls it?

Start with the simple answer. The Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden) is the Kingdom’s principal diversified mining group, listed on the Saudi Exchange (Tadawul) under ticker 1211.

The more useful answer sits underneath the listing. Ma’aden is a cluster of operating businesses spread across several commodities, each with its own ownership arrangements.

The structure above is drawn from secondary research, so you should check it against Ma’aden’s own publications at maaden.com.sa before relying on it.

The PIF relationship

The central fact about Ma’aden is its largest shareholder. The Public Investment Fund (PIF), Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, held approximately 63.78% as of 31 December 2025.

Some 2026 reporting still rounds the stake to roughly 67%. The dated 63.78% figure is the more precise one, and the higher number appears to be either rounded or older.

Either way, the state is in charge. That backing gives Ma’aden access to capital and political support that few miners enjoy, but it also means that when you buy the shares, you accept that government priorities sit alongside commercial returns.

Manara and the overseas push

Manara Minerals is different in kind from the domestic subsidiaries. Rather than running mines at home, it was set up to buy stakes in critical-mineral assets abroad.

Its flagship deal is a 10% stake in Vale Base Metals, completed in 2024 for approximately US$2.5 billion, which gives exposure to copper and nickel. According to Reuters in January 2026, it remained the only major transaction Manara had completed.

Investors exploring Manara’s overseas ambitions can read our deep-dive into Manara’s global strategy shift, which examines how the restructuring could change the vehicle’s approach to critical-mineral deals.

How do phosphate, aluminium and gold make money?

Ma’aden’s three core businesses share an owner but behave very differently. Understanding each one separately is the key to reading the group’s results.

The common thread is integration. An integrated miner controls several steps of the value chain, from digging the raw material out of the ground to turning it into a finished product. That lets the company capture margin at each stage, and in Saudi Arabia it means using locally available natural gas as a cheap energy source for the processing steps.

Phosphate and fertiliser

The phosphate chain runs from mine to fertiliser. Its main product is diammonium phosphate (DAP), a widely used crop fertiliser made by combining phosphate with ammonia.

Making it requires sulphur, and that input became the weak point in Q2 2026. Sulphur shortages and logistics problems cut DAP output by 28% to 1.230 million tonnes and ammonia output by 64% to 267,000 tonnes.

Saudi DAP export dynamics matter because disrupted output at Ma’aden does not just dent group earnings; it also shifts supply into fertiliser markets where buyers are already seeking alternative sources.

Growth is still coming. Phosphate 3 Phase 1 is expected to add approximately 1.5 million tonnes a year, with completion expected by end-2026 and production in 2027.

Aluminium

The aluminium business is fully integrated: bauxite is mined, refined into alumina and then smelted into metal. Smelting uses enormous amounts of power, which is where Saudi gas matters. Fitch Ratings has cited competitively priced natural gas as a cost advantage for the company.

Gold

Ma’aden operates several gold mines, including Mahd Ad-Dahab, Al-Amar and the newer Mansourah-Massarah, which is still ramping up. Gold was the standout this year, with Q2 2026 production up 10% to 118,000 ounces, revenue up 34% to about US$523 million, and full-year output trending toward the upper half of guidance.

EBITDA here means earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, a measure of operating profit before financing and accounting charges.

One portfolio, two quarters Phosphate EBITDA fell 49% while gold EBITDA rose 46% in the same three months.

That split is diversification working, but only partly. Ma’aden cut its 2026 DAP guidance to 6.0-6.5 million tonnes and withdrew ammonia guidance entirely, while aluminium (950,000 to 1.020 million tonnes) and gold (470,000-515,000 ounces) were left unchanged. The lesson for you is that a spread of commodities smooths earnings, but a single missing input can still knock one division sharply off course.

Why is Saudi Arabia betting on mining as a third pillar?

The headline number behind the policy is large. The Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources values the Kingdom’s mineral resources at more than SAR9.4 trillion, roughly US$2.5 trillion.

The scale of the Arabian Shield mineral opportunity explains why you see such large headline valuations, though geology alone does not guarantee production; your assessment should focus on what can realistically be developed and financed.

Under the Vision 2030 diversification programme, mining sits alongside hydrocarbons and petrochemicals as a third economic pillar. The government wants the sector’s contribution to rise from about US$17 billion in 2024 to US$75 billion by 2030, and Saudi Awwal Bank analysis citing the Ministry points to sector capital rising from about SAR45 billion in 2024 to nearly SAR92 billion over 2025-2030.

Five reasons explain the push:

1. Diversification: mining offers non-oil exports and industrial jobs as the Kingdom reduces reliance on crude.
2. Energy advantage: cheap domestic gas lowers costs for energy-hungry aluminium and fertiliser processing.
3. Resource base: the large, underdeveloped endowment gives the state a pitch for exploration capital and partners.
4. Critical-minerals demand: copper, nickel, lithium and rare earths feed electrification, which is why Ma’aden is cooperating with MP Materials on a rare-earth magnet supply chain and exploring Jabal Shayban and Wadi Al Jaww.
5. Food security: phosphate and ammonia are strategic products for global agriculture.

Read the big number carefully The SAR9.4 trillion figure is an aggregate geological and economic estimate, not proven reserves. Turning it into production requires exploration, water, infrastructure, permits, financing and processing capacity.

This is where you need to stay sceptical. Government targets tell you why state support is likely to persist, but they are context for Ma’aden’s growth, not a forecast of its earnings.

What does Ma’aden’s trajectory mean for international investors?

If the policy explains the ambition, the balance sheet explains the stakes. The investment case is real, but it rests on conditions that have not yet been met.

The case for

• Exposure to gold, aluminium and phosphate in a single listed company.
• Sovereign backing through PIF, reflected in Fitch’s BBB+ rating with a stable outlook in 2026.
• Low-cost gas feeding the processing businesses.
• Visible growth from Phosphate 3 and the Mansourah-Massarah gold ramp-up.

The case against

Capital expenditure (capex), the money a company spends building and maintaining assets, is the first concern. Ma’aden’s 2026 guidance is about SAR15.5 billion, including roughly SAR12.6 billion of growth capex.

That spending pushes up debt. Fitch’s assessment expected EBITDA net leverage, or net debt divided by EBITDA, to rise from 1.9x in 2024 to about 3.1-3.2x in 2027-28.

Fitch’s rating affirmation for Ma’aden links the BBB+ stable outlook to the company’s strong ties with its majority shareholder, while projecting that EBITDA net leverage will climb as the capital programme advances, a trade-off you should weigh.

Those two valuation figures measure different things: one is a single broker’s estimate from last year, the other an aggregate of analyst views this month. Treat them as a range of opinion, not a target. Secondary reporting also cites a roughly US$110 billion ten-year investment ambition, which is a strategic aim rather than committed spending.

Comparisons help frame the trade-off. Chile’s Codelco shows how a state champion can balance national strategy against commercial discipline, while BHP and Rio Tinto show that even large diversified miners cannot escape commodity cycles. Ma’aden combines stronger sovereign sponsorship than the Australians with a shorter operating history, so your view should hinge on whether it can deliver this capital programme without leverage and price swings eroding returns.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Financial projections are subject to market conditions and various risk factors.

What to watch as the Kingdom’s mining story develops

Ma’aden is best understood as a state-backed, multi-commodity platform whose value now depends on execution rather than ambition. The signals worth tracking are concrete:

• Phosphate 3 commissioning and the move to production in 2027
• Sulphur supply and any further changes to DAP guidance
• The Mansourah-Massarah gold ramp-up against guidance
• Leverage trends relative to Fitch’s projections
• Any new Manara deals beyond Vale Base Metals

If those boxes start getting ticked, the third-pillar story gains substance. If they slip, you will be paying for a plan rather than a proven operator.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.