Why Lyn Alden Sold Miners but Stayed Bullish on Gold

Most investors assume a macro thinker who has backed gold and commodities for years would keep piling in as prices climb. Lyn Alden did something less intuitive. She used the recent boom to sell some of her mining positions, while staying bullish on the asset class itself.

That tension sits at the centre of Lyn Alden investing. Gold climbed from under US$2,000 to a peak near US$5,405 in January 2026, according to figures cited in her recent interview, and sat around US$4,194 as of 10 October 2026, per the same source. Silver and miners followed a similar boom-then-selloff path.

Her decisions through that cycle show how to separate a thesis (what you believe about the world) from a trade (what you pay to act on it).

Here is where her framework points, where credible critics push back, and how to apply her screening logic to your own holdings.

Why multipolarity sits underneath every Alden position

Alden’s case

Alden argues the world is moving from one dominant power toward several: the US, Latin America led by Brazil, a weaker Europe, Russia, China, India and Japan. She has written about this since 2020 and does not frame it as inherently negative. After the Second World War, the US held well over 40% of world GDP with roughly 4% of the world’s population, an outlier position that China and India are now eroding as they return towards historical shares.

In that world, she argues, neutral reserves make more sense than relying on one nation’s bond market. Gold is no one’s liability, and she sees Bitcoin as a possible later candidate for the same role.

Alden’s multipolar argument rests on the idea that countries want neutral reserve assets that carry no counterparty risk, which is why gold’s role in a shifting monetary order matters more than its short-term price swings.

She adds a caveat. Multipolar boundaries can bring more conflict than a unipolar order.

What the sceptics say

The central bank data support the direction of her thesis but not its speed.

Source: World Gold Council, with Kitco for August buyers.

Sceptics point out that buying is concentrated among a subset of emerging market central banks, that annual totals swing with price and politics, and that the dollar’s reserve share has declined only gradually over decades. The consistency of the buyer group tells you demand is strategic rather than speculative. The dip below 1,000 tonnes tells you not to read it as a straight line to de-dollarisation.

Why a multi-year commodity bull market still makes sense (and where it could fail)

If gold is the reserve expression of multipolarity, commodities are the physical one. Alden ties them together through fiscal dominance: heavy government debt limits how hard central banks can push real rates (interest rates after inflation), which tends to favour hard assets.

The structural commodity bull case draws on reshoring, grid build-out and AI infrastructure, all of which pull on the same physical inputs and tie back to the fiscal constraints Alden highlights.

The bull drivers she and supporters cite are concrete:

• Globalisation has been waning since its expansion in the 1980s to early 1990s, putting supply chain resilience ahead of lowest cost
• Reshoring needs plants, logistics, grids and data centres, all heavy users of steel, copper, cement and energy
• AI and compute are physically intensive, needing chips, power, cooling and key metals
• Corporate moves such as Apple’s reported US$500 million investment in MP Materials for rare-earth magnets and recycling (deal details beyond the headline have not been confirmed)

Alden on timelines Rebuilding supply chains and manufacturing capacity, in her view, takes years or even decades, because industrial hubs depend on network effects, expertise and supplier relationships that cannot simply be relocated.

That timeline cuts both ways. The counter-case is serious:

• Reshoring may prove slower and more selective as firms keep optimising for cost
• Substitution, efficiency and recycling reduce how much metal each unit of GDP needs
• AI demand may taper as capacity catches up, as past telecom and server cycles did
• Independent central banks can still hold real rates positive
• Past super-cycles ended in long mean reversion as high prices pulled in new supply

A slow build means you should weigh entry price and patience, not expect a quick re-rating.

Why Alden sold miners after the boom, and what a dividend-adjusted PEG screen does

Which brings back the opening puzzle. Alden once saw gold, silver and miners as deeply undervalued. After the run, she judged the asymmetry gone.

Once prices had risen so far, the potential downside looked nearly as large as the upside.

Selling was consistent with the thesis, not a reversal of it. She also regards mining as historically capital-destroying, a win-or-take-most industry where skilled operators thrive, and says she lacks an edge in junior miners. She prefers areas she understands, such as banks in commodity-exposed countries.

For long-term compounders she uses a dividend-adjusted PEG. PEG is the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided by expected earnings growth.

1. Take the P/E multiple (for example, 15x)
2. Estimate annual earnings growth (for example, 15%)
3. Add the dividend yield to growth
4. Divide the P/E by that combined figure; 15 divided by 15 gives a PEG of 1
5. Look for results under 2 (Peter Lynch used under 1)

The tool has limits, especially in mining.

Use PEG as a rough filter. A cheap-looking PEG built on peak-cycle earnings is a warning, not a bargain.

How Alden thinks about Latin American banks and unhedged currency exposure

The case

Rather than miners, Alden expresses commodity exposure through Latin American banks. She sees the region as underowned and in recovery, with Brazil and others likely past the bottom of a cycle of capital flight and currency weakness. High real yields mean small foreign inflows can move markets, and she argues the flywheel can work regardless of who wins elections, barring extreme outcomes. Brazil’s 2003-2007 bull market under Lula is the usual precedent.

She does not hedge currency on these holdings, because the currency is part of the thesis. She treats the Swiss franc and Norwegian krone as defensive stores of value, and Brazil as a carry opportunity.

The risks

The same features that make the case attractive also magnify losses.

Current valuation data for Brazilian equities or regional banks were not available in the research, so judge entry levels yourself. Copying this approach means accepting currency volatility as part of the return, so size the position to survive large drawdowns. If that tolerance is limited, partial hedging or a diversified emerging market fund may suit you better.

Educational section: What fiscal dominance and the US trajectory mean for your portfolio

Every position above traces back to one idea about the US. Three terms carry it:

• Fiscal dominance: when government debt and deficits are large enough that the central bank cannot raise rates freely, so inflation is tolerated
• K-shaped economy: a split where some groups (in Alden’s view, tech and finance) prosper while many others stall or slip
• Hindsight crisis: a slow decline that only looks like a crisis when historians look back

Alden expects stagnation and mini-crises rather than one breaking point. She compares it to Egypt after its revolution, with double-digit inflation running throughout.

In her framing, historians in 2050 may look back and see gradual decline that few labelled a crisis while living through it.

She argues a quiet sovereign debt crisis has already run for five to six years, as bondholders lost purchasing power against assets such as gold.

The firmer evidence is Social Security. The 2026 Trustees Report projects the OASI Trust Fund paying full scheduled benefits until Q4 2032, with the combined OASI and DI funds depleting in Q3 2034. The interview cites 78% and 83% of benefits payable after those dates; those figures were not located in the official excerpts. Alden lists the options as printing money, raising taxes on workers, cutting benefits or means-adjusting them.

For you, this backdrop means judging holdings by how well they preserve purchasing power, not only by headline returns.

For readers wanting hard numbers on the Fed’s bind, our deep-dive into US debt and Fed constraints shows how roughly $1 trillion in annual interest costs shapes rate decisions.

What to take from Alden’s approach, and what to test yourself

The evidence is strongest on continuing central bank gold buying and Social Security strain in the early 2030s. It is weaker on how long the commodity upcycle lasts, how safe emerging market banks are and how fast the dollar’s role fades.

The practical lessons hold regardless. Separate the thesis from the entry price. Check that the upside still outweighs the downside before buying. Size unhedged currency exposure to survive drawdowns, and test growth forecasts before trusting a PEG.

Three signals will show whether her framework keeps earning its keep: the central bank buying trend, hard evidence of reshoring and capital spending, and real rates in emerging markets.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and forward-looking views cited here are speculative and subject to change.