Abitibi Metals’ B26: 98% Recovery and a Growing Copper Case

Copper recovery rates of 98% are rare in early-stage development. When that figure appears alongside a resource that has grown 124% in a single update cycle and a management team guiding toward 30-45 million tonnes by early 2027, the technical story practically announces itself.

The harder question is what would have to go right, and what would have to hold, for that story to convert into a fully de-risked asset.

This matters now because the structural copper supply narrative has sharpened the two filters institutional capital applies to development assets: technical quality and jurisdictional reliability. The B26 deposit, owned by Abitibi Metals, sits at the intersection of both. It is a polymetallic volcanogenic massive sulphide system in Quebec, and it has become a case study in how a junior with strong metallurgy navigates a tightening copper market.

What follows here is not a promotional read of the resource announcement. It is a framework for deciding whether B26’s technical quality and growth trajectory represent a genuinely differentiated copper development opportunity, or whether the current profile reflects promise that still needs substantial confirmation. You should leave with a calibrated view of the asset, built on evidence rather than sentiment.

What 98% copper recovery actually signals about B26’s ore

Most early-stage recovery figures deserve a degree of scepticism. B26’s does not, and the reason sits in the mineralogy rather than the headline.

The analytical anchor Copper recovery at B26 is approximately 98%, attributed to the ore being predominantly chalcopyrite, according to CEO Jon Deluce.

Chalcopyrite (CuFeS₂) is the primary copper mineral in many VMS systems, and it behaves in a way that metallurgists have studied for decades. It responds predictably to standard flotation collectors and pH regimes, which means the recovery number is not a fluke of an idealised sample. It reflects a mineral assemblage that performs consistently at operating mines.

That predictability is where the value sits. For investors evaluating copper development assets, a chalcopyrite-dominant ore delivering recoveries in the high 90s at bench scale is a meaningful de-risking signal, because the mineralogy carries a performance track record that complex copper assemblages simply do not.

The performance gap between chalcopyrite-dominant ores and more complex assemblages reflects a broader principle in project evaluation: sulphide versus oxide mineralogy determines not just recoveries but the entire processing route, capital intensity, and concentrate marketability a project will carry into feasibility.

The concentrate grade reinforces the point. B26 testwork has produced a copper concentrate grade of approximately 23-24% Cu, with a figure of roughly 23.7% cited specifically. A clean, high-grade concentrate matters commercially because smelters pay for contained copper and penalise contaminants. Fewer deleterious elements means better payability and lower treatment charges per pound.

The advantages of this mineralogy are worth laying out plainly:

• High sulphide tenor that enables strong recovery into relatively low mass pulls, limiting dilution
• Clean flotation behaviour benchmarked extensively across operating VMS mines
• Limited deleterious elements, producing concentrate that attracts better smelter terms
• Commercial predictability when moving from bench scale toward feasibility studies

Across Canadian camps such as Flin Flon-Snow Lake and Kidd Creek, chalcopyrite-dominant ores have consistently delivered a metallurgical quality premium relative to more complex deposit types. B26 fits that pattern, and a recent intercept of 18.8% CuEq over 7 m with significant gold credit underlines the tenor the system can host.

What scale-up risk means for the number

Here is the honest limit of what the testwork proves. Bench-scale and locked-cycle results use controlled conditions and selected samples. They do not guarantee identical performance in a full-scale plant processing mixed ore domains.

VMS deposits commonly contain copper-rich, zinc-rich, and gold-rich domains with varying metallurgical response. The signal at B26 is genuinely strong, but what converts it into a bankable number is confirmation at pilot or feasibility scale, where mineralogical variability across the deposit gets tested in a continuous circuit rather than a laboratory.

How 25.3 million tonnes became a 30-45 million tonne target, and whether the geology supports it

Before assessing the growth target, the starting point needs to be clear.

The 2026 Mineral Resource Estimate stands at 25.3 Mt at approximately 2.1% CuEq, split roughly evenly by confidence category: 12.96 Mt Indicated at 2.08% CuEq and 12.34 Mt Inferred at 2.20% CuEq. The deposit hosts around 775 million lb of copper and 451,000 oz of gold, plus zinc and silver credits.

The headline from the 9 February 2026 update was 124% resource growth, supported by 356 drill holes totalling 172,164 m. That is the base from which the 30-45 Mt target, guided by CEO Jon Deluce for Q1 2027, has to be built.

The drilling evidence behind the expansion case

The geological argument for the target does not rest on authority. It rests on a sequence of intercepts that show the system staying open and coherent at depth.

Read that sequence as a trajectory, not three isolated hits. The 913 m intercept in January returned 12.83% CuEq over 5 m within a broader 3.59% CuEq over 19 m. By May, drilling at 946 m returned 4.04% CuEq over 14 m and extended the western down-plunge zone roughly 50 m east. By September, the system was delivering breadth as well as depth, with 3.72% CuEq over 9.2 m sitting inside a broader 1.25% CuEq over 60.2 m.

The combination of down-plunge continuity and lateral breadth is precisely the geological precondition the expansion target requires. The system is behaving the way a growing VMS lens should.

The target would be pursued through a structured, three-category drilling framework:

1. Infill conversion drilling to upgrade Inferred material to Indicated within the existing footprint
2. Deposit expansion drilling to extend the system along strike and down-plunge
3. Regional exploration testing targets beyond the deposit boundary, including a western zone roughly 1.5 km from the main deposit

A planned programme of approximately 40,000 m is the vehicle for all three, with a pilot hole targeting around 1.5 km vertical depth and downhole electromagnetic surveys designed to locate higher-grade stringer mineralisation at depth.

Whether 30-45 Mt is achievable depends on whether the next wave of drilling confirms these patterns hold at greater depth and wider spacing. The evidence to date is supportive. It is not yet conclusive.

The western VMS target and what a second system would mean

In July 2026, a four-hole regional programme tested three of seven high-priority targets about 1.5 km west of the main deposit. Hole 1274-26-383 returned 14.25 m of 1.13% Zn and 51.51 g/t Ag, equivalent to roughly 0.74% CuEq.

Abitibi describes this as a potential new VMS system, and a prior winter programme had intersected mineralisation in the same western area. That read-through matters because a defined second system would change the scale narrative materially. The caveat is equally clear: this is a discovery-stage result requiring follow-up, not a defined resource.

Why Quebec jurisdiction and copper supply dynamics amplify the B26 technical story

Technical quality does not exist in a vacuum. Institutional capital is currently applying two macro filters to copper developers, and B26’s attributes gain weight under both.

The supply backdrop is the first. Analyses from S&P Global, the International Energy Agency, and Wood Mackenzie converge on structural copper tightness driven by electrification, renewable deployment, and grid expansion, with deficits projected to emerge or widen through the mid-2020s and into the 2030s unless large new projects are built.

The drivers of that constraint are specific:

• Grade decline at major producers, particularly in Chile and Peru, reducing output and raising costs
• Resource depletion and mine closures as long-life assets approach end of reserve life
• Permitting and social licence delays, especially in higher-risk jurisdictions
• Underinvestment in new supply after a decade of capital discipline, creating a pipeline gap

The institutional read on supply Commentary from Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets, and BMO Capital Markets points to sustained underinvestment in new copper supply as the root of an emerging pipeline gap, a structural tightness that favours shovel-ready, high-quality developments.

The second filter is jurisdiction, and this is where Quebec does real work. Jurisdictional risk is now priced directly into project valuations, which means a technically sound deposit in a stable mining region carries a premium over a comparable asset in a frontier location.

Quebec offers relatively low political and expropriation risk, predictable regulatory frameworks, and strong infrastructure in power, transport, and skilled labour. Those attributes function as capex and execution-risk mitigants, and they align with the preference of ESG-conscious capital for OECD or near-OECD jurisdictions with credible environmental safeguards.

Quebec’s mining regulatory environment has evolved in a direction that actively supports critical minerals development, with the provincial government introducing structured support mechanisms that reduce permitting uncertainty for copper and gold projects at the resource-growth stage, a material advantage for assets like B26 approaching their PEA phase.

Connect that back to the metallurgy, and the case sharpens. High-recovery, clean-concentrate VMS projects in stable jurisdictions are genuinely scarce. For the reader weighing where B26 sits in the global pipeline, that scarcity is what justifies a valuation premium relative to comparably sized assets elsewhere, and it frames what a realistic market re-rating would actually require.

The risks a sophisticated investor should stress-test before reaching a view on B26

A credible opportunity case deserves an equally serious risk case. Here are the conditions under which the thesis weakens.

• Geological risk: VMS lenses can pinch out, become fault-offset, or transition into lower-grade material, and extrapolating continuity from limited step-out holes carries the risk of overstating it.
• Metallurgical scale-up risk: bench and locked-cycle results do not guarantee plant performance across mixed ore domains, where copper-rich, zinc-rich, and gold-rich zones respond differently.
• Financing and development-stage risk: the move from resource growth through PEA to feasibility requires substantial capital, and juniors frequently face dilution or strategic-partner dependence at this transition.

The 30-45 Mt target is the sharpest stress point. Roughly 50% of the current 25.3 Mt resource is Inferred, and upgrading that mass to Indicated requires tighter drill spacing and careful geostatistical work, both of which take time and capital that headline tonnage targets do not always reflect.

There is also a disclosure gap worth naming directly. The Q1 2027 resource update and PEA timeline rest on CEO Jon Deluce’s guidance and are not independently confirmed in dated public disclosure. Analysts at RBC, BMO, Haywood, and Canaccord routinely flag that juniors can see timelines slip at the PEA-to-feasibility stage, often through dilution or partner risk.

Development-stage projects in the copper pipeline occupy a specific risk band: past discovery and early resource definition, but not yet carrying the bankable feasibility study that converts institutional interest into committed capital, and the distance between those two points is where most junior developers face their highest dilution and timeline risk.

Mitigating factors that are specific to B26

None of this dismisses the thesis. It argues for assigning probability weights to the timeline and tonnage assumptions rather than treating them as base-case certainties. Three genuine de-risking signals offset the risks above, though they do not resolve them:

• Metallurgical bench performance: the 98% recovery and clean 23-24% Cu concentrate are meaningful early signals of ore quality
• Drilling discipline: the three-category strategy and downhole EM programme reflect systematic, data-driven targeting aligned with how major VMS camps were built
• Quebec jurisdiction: established infrastructure and a predictable regulatory framework reduce capex and execution risk

These are partial offsets. The read you should take is that B26’s strengths are real and its risks are stage-appropriate, and a well-calibrated entry weighs both rather than either alone.

What the B26 investment thesis requires to fully materialise by 2027

The next twelve months represent the highest-information period in B26’s development history. Rather than a closed verdict, what the asset warrants is an active monitoring lens built around a handful of observable milestones.

Track these in sequence:

1. The Q1 2027 resource update: does it land inside the 30-45 Mt range, and at what grade? An in-range result confirms the growth trajectory; a shortfall forces a reassessment of the expansion thesis.
2. The PEA economic output: margins, capital intensity, and NPV sensitivity will show whether the technical quality translates into economic strength.
3. Deep drill results below 946 m: the pilot hole targeting roughly 1.5 km depth is the key geological de-risking event for the deep-extension story.
4. Western VMS follow-up: four of seven high-priority targets remain untested, and a defined second system would reshape the scale narrative.

Treat the western zone as optionality rather than base case. If follow-up drilling defines a second mineralised system, the scale story changes materially. If it does not, the main deposit thesis stands on its own merits.

Positioned within the broader copper development landscape, B26 reads as a technically credible, early-development asset in a favoured jurisdiction, carrying a clear near-term catalyst in the Q1 2027 resource and PEA announcement and the risks appropriate to its stage. The investor who knows which specific outputs confirm or challenge the case will respond to the next twelve months of data analytically rather than reactively.

Investors wanting to benchmark the capital intensity and timeline assumptions embedded in the PEA will find our dedicated guide to copper mine development economics, which details the $210B investment gap facing the global copper pipeline and the specific capex and financing structures common to projects at B26’s development stage.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Financial projections and resource growth targets are subject to market conditions and various risk factors, and forward-looking statements reported here are attributed to company management and remain speculative and subject to change.