Why Peru’s Zinc Supply Swings on a Single Copper Mine’s Ore Plan

Peru’s zinc mine output fell 13.5% in 2024, from about 1.47 Mt to 1.27 Mt, and most of that drop traced back to a handful of operations led by a single mine. You might assume zinc supply rises and falls with the zinc price. In the Peru zinc industry, the bigger lever is often an ore plan drawn up by a copper miner.

That matters well beyond the Andes. Peru is the world’s third-largest zinc producer, supplying roughly 11% of global mine output. When a few large operations change what they feed through their mills, concentrate markets and smelter economics feel it.

The Andean supply chain is both a critical link in global zinc and a concentrated, politically exposed one. Both features deserve your attention.

Here is where Peruvian zinc comes from, why national output swings so sharply from year to year, and which risks carry the most weight when you judge the country’s supply.

Where Peru sits in global zinc supply, and why output swings so sharply

Start with the stable fact. According to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) 2024 Annual Report, citing the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Peru holds third place in global zinc mine production.

The ranking looks secure. Peru’s reserves stand at 18,000 kt of zinc, according to the USGS, which points to decades of potential concentrate supply. Output is spread across several Andean regions:

• Ancash
• Junin
• Ica
• Pasco
• Lima

Now look at what the ranking hides. Data from Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM), reported by the BCRP, shows production fell from 1,469,127 t in 2023 to 1,270,646 t in 2024.

The 2024 slide Peru’s zinc output dropped 13.5% in a single year, a loss of almost 200,000 t of contained zinc.

The rebound was nearly as quick. Estimates for 2025 range from about 1.29 Mt (BCRP) to 1.5 Mt (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026), and partial 2026 results already show a year-to-date decline. Older references to Peru producing “about 1.1 Mt” understate recent output, so treat 1.27 Mt for 2024 as the reliable baseline.

Swings of this size come from concentration. A few large polymetallic mines (mines that produce several metals from the same ore) set the national total, so a change in ore sequencing at one operation can move Peru’s supply by 10-13% in a year. That tells you the headline ranking is less stable than it appears, and the mine that matters most is Antamina.

Peru’s mining export performance shows how heavily the national economy leans on a few metals, which is part of why disruption at a single large mine carries such weight.

How Antamina’s copper-zinc ore shapes Peru’s zinc supply

Who owns Antamina and what it produces

Antamina, in Ancash, is described as the world’s leading copper-zinc mine by revenue. Four major miners share it, with ownership confirmed in Teck‘s 2025 management discussion and analysis (MD&A):

• BHP: 33.75%
• Glencore: 33.75%
• Teck: 22.5%
• Mitsubishi: 10%

Copper is the main product. Zinc is a major co-product, meaning a second metal recovered in large enough volumes to matter commercially, while molybdenum and silver come out as smaller by-products.

The mine’s weight in national output is hard to overstate. The USGS credits Antamina with about 25% of Peruvian zinc in 2024, and its share has ranged from roughly 23% to 36% depending on the year.

The figures come from Teck’s MD&A. Sources disagree on 2024 zinc: a 2026 industry article citing MINEM data puts it at 319,069 t, so the realistic range is roughly 268-319 kt, likely reflecting different reporting bases.

Why zinc output follows ore sequencing, not price

Here is the mechanism. Copper revenue dominates Antamina’s economics, so the operators plan the mine to maximise copper recovery and the total value of the orebody, not zinc tonnes.

That plan decides which parts of the deposit go through the mill and when. Some zones hold copper-zinc ore; others hold copper-only ore. Ore sequencing (the order in which zones are mined) and plant configuration therefore set zinc output far more than the zinc price does.

The 2025 numbers show it working. Teck attributes the zinc surge to processing a higher share of copper-zinc ore, even as copper fell. Then, in 2026 quarters, mill feed shifted towards copper-only ore and zinc dropped sharply.

When mill feed shifts toward copper-only ore sequencing, zinc output at Antamina can drop sharply even while copper holds steady, which is why you should read the mine plan before you read the zinc price.

The mine plan points the same way. Teck’s attributable zinc from Antamina was 102.3 kt in 2025, with 2026 guidance of 95-105 kt, and the company expects copper to stay relatively stable while zinc declines over time.

This makes Peru’s zinc supply inelastic, meaning it responds weakly to price. Zinc can tighten while prices are high and surge when the plan swings back.

That links straight to smelters. Treatment charges (TCs) are fees miners pay smelters to process concentrate into metal; as a standard industry mechanism, they tend to fall when concentrate supply tightens and rise when it rebounds. When you see Antamina’s feed mix change, you are watching an early signal for zinc concentrate markets.

Beyond Antamina: Cerro Lindo, El Brocal and the junior pipeline

Established producers beyond Antamina

Step away from Antamina and the supply base is still real, but each layer is thinner. The main polymetallic alternative is Cerro Lindo in Ica, operated by Nexa Resources, part of the Votorantim group and historically referenced as Milpo.

Cerro Lindo produced about 87.1 kt of zinc in 2025, alongside 27.1 kt of copper, 10.3 kt of lead and 3.95 Moz of silver. Nexa’s measured and indicated zinc resources (exclusive of reserves) were 3,120 kt at 31 December 2025, against 3,163 kt a year earlier, which suggests a maturing but still long-lived base.

Further down, the picture gets patchier.

The BCRP partly blames the 2024 national fall on El Brocal’s processing collapse, alongside declines at Antamina and Volcan. When three operations slip together, you get a 13.5% national drop.

The junior explorer pipeline

Junior explorers add optionality (the chance of future supply) rather than near-term tonnes. Aftermath Silver continues drilling at its Berenguela zinc-silver project in Puno into 2026, with a pre-feasibility study (PFS), an early-stage economic assessment, targeted for early 2027. Zinc One Resources has issued no major recent public updates.

The read for you is clear: no second Antamina sits in the pipeline. Peru’s near-term zinc supply rests on a few operating mines, so junior headlines deserve modest weight in your supply view.

Pressures such as permitting and illegal mining also explain why the junior pipeline is thin, since few exploration projects clear the social and regulatory hurdles needed to become producers.

What does political and sovereign risk mean for Peruvian zinc?

The central tension Peru pairs world-class deposits and efficient large operations with recurring social and political friction.

Sovereign risk, the risk that a country’s politics or policies hurt an investment, reaches mines through several channels. Community blockades cut transport corridors. Formal permits do not guarantee a social licence, meaning local acceptance. Informal mining registered under the REINFO formalisation scheme overlaps with large operations, raising claim and environmental disputes, while frequent political turnover keeps tax and royalty fears alive.

Three cases make this concrete:

1. Las Bambas: repeated blockades on the road to port have halted truck movements for extended periods, forcing production cuts or stockpiling.
2. Tía María (Arequipa): years of delay from local opposition despite environmental approvals, showing that social licence can override permits.
3. Antamina: generally well run, with occasional community and logistics disputes, but its quarter-to-over-a-third share of national zinc means any disruption would hit global concentrate flows hard.

The fiscal layer is steadier than the politics. Peru’s mining royalty and Special Mining Tax (IEM) are profit-based, calculated on operating margins with sliding scales, and despite talk of increases, no major rate changes had been enacted as of October 2026.

With London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc near US$3,750-3,801 per tonne in early October 2026, every lost tonne carries real value. That risk tends to show up as:

• Higher discount rates (the return investors demand) on long-life projects
• A preference for brownfield optimisation at existing mines over greenfield builds
• Valuation scenarios that model blockade downtime, especially for concentrate exporters

The takeaway for you: weigh a Peruvian zinc exposure’s disruption scenarios as seriously as its grade or price.

For investors weighing legislative risk, our detailed coverage of Peru’s mining concessions law reform explains how proposed 15-year concession limits could reshape exploration investment.

Weighing Peru’s zinc upside against its concentration risk

Peru’s third-place ranking is real, but its supply depends on Antamina’s copper-led ore plan, a thin bench of secondary producers and transport corridors that communities can close. Price alone will not tell you where Peruvian zinc is heading.

Three signals will tell you more:

1. Antamina’s mill feed mix and Teck’s attributable zinc guidance
2. Output updates from Cerro Lindo and any resumed reporting on El Brocal
3. Any move on the royalty or IEM framework, and fresh corridor blockades

Track those, and you will read Peruvian supply shifts before they reach treatment charges and smelter margins.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Financial projections and production guidance are subject to market conditions and various risk factors, and forward-looking statements are speculative and subject to change.