Coda Minerals Trades at 3% of Elizabeth Creek’s $855m NPV: Why?

A copper-silver project with a scoping-study post-tax value of $855m sits inside a company the market prices at roughly $45-47m. That is the position at Coda Minerals (ASX: COD) and its Elizabeth Creek copper-silver-cobalt project in South Australia. The equity trades at about 3% of the project’s own modelled worth.

So is the market missing something, or is it charging a fair price for risks that have not yet been resolved?

The timing makes the question urgent. It is early October 2026, and Coda is targeting delivery of its pre-feasibility study (PFS) in Q1 2027. A PFS is the second major engineering study on a mining project, more detailed than a scoping study and used to support funding and reserve decisions. Market data sources differ slightly. Intelligent Investor put the value at $47m at $0.113 on 7 October 2026, while SimplyWall.St and Investing.com showed about $45m at $0.11.

The sections below set out which milestones could close the gap and which risks could keep it wide open.

Why does Coda trade at about 3% of NPV?

Start with the headline numbers. Net present value (NPV) is today’s value of a project’s future cash flows after applying a discount rate. NPV7 uses a 7% rate.

Economic feasibility studies translate drilling and metallurgy into NPV, IRR and capex figures, which is why the jump from a scoping-level estimate to a PFS can move a project’s headline value so sharply in either direction.

According to Coda’s ASX releases of 28 August 2025 and 24 February 2026, Elizabeth Creek carries a pre-tax NPV7 of $1.29bn (internal rate of return 39%) and a post-tax NPV7 of $855m (IRR 30%). The plan runs 15.5 years, producing 454 kt of copper and 20.3 Moz of silver at an all-in sustaining cost of US$2.15/lb.

The broker figures come from a note titled “Proving Up a Process” dated 29 September 2026. They model the optimised chloride-leach flowsheet and are not company guidance. Treat them as one analyst’s view.

The resource itself is substantial. It totals 725.8 kt of copper and 27.8 Moz of silver at 1.6% copper equivalent (CuEq), about 40 km west of BHP’s Carrapateena operation. CuEq converts all payable metals into a single copper-grade figure.

Chief Executive Officer Chris Stevens offers a less exciting reading of the discount. In his view, companies midway through a PFS typically trade at 2-5% of NPV, which places Coda inside the normal band rather than below it.

That framing matters. The market is waiting for three things: a final processing flowsheet, full mine planning across two open pits and the underground, and a PFS valuation that stands up as a sensible multiple of capex. Until then, the discount bundles technical, cost, financing and permitting risk together.

Re-rates do happen. New World Resources was reportedly taken over at 6.8c after trading near 1.7c.

A 3% ratio tells you the market sees a real chance that today’s NPV does not survive the PFS intact. Read the discount as a measure of unresolved risk, not free upside.

Chloride leach versus flotation: what does the recovery gap actually mean?

The numbers on the screen are striking. Variability composites from Emmie Bluff and Windabout, reported in September 2026, averaged 94.4% copper and 95.9% silver recovery under chloride leach. Earlier flotation work delivered about 82.8% copper and about 82% silver.

Recovery and product

Flotation crushes ore and uses bubbles and chemicals to float copper minerals into a concentrate. Chloride leach dissolves the metals in a salty chemical solution and then recovers them. Chloride leach is now Coda’s base case.

Peaks reached 97.2% copper and 99.7% silver. Even the worst-case Windabout sample, high in carbonate and low in grade, returned about 90%.

Saline site water gave comparable or better results, including 95.8% copper and 93.6% silver. Cobalt averaged about 40%, and it sat outside earlier economics entirely.

Risk and scale-up

Higher recovery does not equal lower risk. Chloride systems depend on recycling reagents in a closed loop, and large circuits have few operating precedents.

Scoping-level tests used just three basic composites with no open pit material. Around 130 tests have since broadened that base, and the solids ratio rose from 6% to 10%, shrinking plant size.

Metsim modelling, expected to take about a month, will test reagent recycling, water and equipment. Locked-cycle testing of an integrated circuit follows. Stevens views recycling as a mechanical problem rather than a chemistry one, because the reagents are not consumed.

A gap of roughly 12 percentage points in copper recovery flows straight to revenue. It only becomes bankable value once you see integrated, closed-loop results.

How do mine plan, copper price and capex change the PFS?

Some of the inputs behind the current study are stale. Coda’s open pits were last optimised at $7,800/t copper and $16/oz silver, well below today’s prices.

Re-optimisation should change the pit shells and inform the sizing of the Emmie Bluff underground, a narrow orebody planned at around 3 Mtpa. The ore is soft dolomitic shale beneath very competent sandstone, which suits several mining methods. Two open pits hold over 250,000 t of contained copper and provide feed that eases underground ramp-up risk.

Nearly all of the previous mine plan sat in the indicated category. Indicated resources carry enough confidence to support conversion to a maiden reserve, so no extra drilling may be needed.

Price is the bigger lever. The study deck used US$10,500/t copper, against these current views:

• LME market: above US$14,700/t in early September 2026, with recent trading near US$13,500-14,000/t
• Goldman Sachs: about US$13,735/t for end-2026
• Other forecasters: US$13,200-13,800/t
• Other developers’ long-term decks: $11,400-12,000/t, with some at $14,000-15,000/t

Chief Executive Officer view Chris Stevens considers a long-term copper price in the low-$11,000s per tonne sensible, and does not endorse the higher $14,000-15,000 decks. No price decision has been announced.

Higher prices lift NPV, but they also invite cost inflation. Coda has appointed Ausenco and independent engineers for capex, and scoping estimates typically carry accuracy of ±30-50%. Stevens expects strong copper prices and scarce advanced projects to offset cost pressure.

Copper market dynamics reach well beyond simple supply and demand, and the gap between the study deck and spot prices shows how sensitive a developer’s NPV is to the assumption chosen.

The price deck chosen for the PFS is a headline-moving decision in itself. When the Q1 2027 number lands, judge it by the assumptions behind it.

Could a silver stream fund Elizabeth Creek the way it did for KGL?

Funding is where a better PFS turns into a buildable mine. Stevens points to a recent template.

A stream is a deal where a financier pays cash upfront in exchange for a share of a mine’s future metal output at a discounted price.

ASX mining finance structures have shifted away from equity-only funding toward streams, royalties and hybrid debt, which explains why developers now court financiers before committing to large, dilutive raises.

What KGL tells us

In April 2026, KGL Resources agreed a gold and silver stream with Wheaton on its Jervois project. Wheaton committed US$275m upfront in stages, plus up to US$25m as a cost-overrun facility.

The silver stream starts at 75% and steps down to 25%, with an ongoing payment of 20% of spot. KGL forward sold about 8 Moz of silver.

Where Coda differs

Elizabeth Creek has 28 Moz of silver in resource and about 20.3 Moz in planned production, much larger than KGL’s committed volume. Stevens sees a 50% silver stream potentially funding a material share of the $472m pre-production capex.

The stage is different, though. Streamers want finalised mining and processing plans, so funding follows the PFS. Coda’s partner tracker lists 143 groups, and Stevens prefers to avoid an opportunistic takeover now.

Here is what a stream does to the equity story:

1. Capex coverage: reduces the need for a large equity raise
2. Validation: a major streamer’s backing can improve access to debt and partners
3. Dilution: typically less dilutive than very large equity raises
4. Upside transfer: the streamer captures gains on streamed silver if prices outperform

Streaming a by-product preserves exposure to copper, the main metal. Still, a stream could cover a large share of capex at the cost of some silver upside. You are trading part of the upside for certainty.

Approvals, water and the risks that could keep the gap open

De-risking progress

Less visible work is also advancing. South Australia gazetted Coda’s Scoping Report, the first-stage approvals document that sets requirements for the Mining Lease application planned after the PFS. Sources conflict on timing: the original interview cites July 2026, while later updates reference September 2026.

A groundwater drilling programme is under way at Windabout, then Emmie Bluff, with pump testing to follow and water variability results expected soon. Carrapateena draws most of its water from borefields near Elizabeth Creek, which supports confidence in flow rates.

Stevens reports no major delays outside the company’s control beyond weather, rig issues and assay turnaround, which has stretched from 3 days to as long as 4 weeks.

What could go wrong

Ranked roughly by impact, these are the counter-arguments to weigh:

1. Process scale-up: reagent recycling remains unproven at integrated scale
2. Capex inflation: scoping accuracy of ±30-50% leaves room for NPV compression
3. Financing dilution: discounted raises or options can erode per-share value
4. Copper price deck: an aggressive assumption could overstate NPV
5. Streaming value transfer: silver upside shifts to the financier
6. Resource conversion: a plan may need redesign if material fails to convert
7. Timing: weather, rigs and assay delays

Approvals and water progress remove some unknowns. Process and financing risk remain the dominant swing factors for your view.

Milestones to watch before the Q1 2027 PFS

Expected sequence:

1. Metsim modelling results
2. Locked-cycle testing of the integrated circuit
3. Water variability results and pump testing
4. Re-optimised open pit and underground mine plan
5. Independent capex estimates and copper price deck
6. PFS delivery in Q1 2027
7. Funding and the Mining Lease application

Locked-cycle results are the milestone most likely to shift the debate. Strong closed-loop recycling would make the recovery advantage bankable and move 3% of NPV closer to a discount. A failure there would make today’s price look fair.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Financial projections and forward-looking statements are speculative and subject to market conditions and various risk factors.