Critica’s Mt Lindsay Scoping Study Delivers $1B NPV on $245M Capital
Key Takeaways
- Critica's Mt Lindsay Scoping Study, prepared by DRA Global, returns an after-tax NPV of A$1.01 billion and an after-tax IRR of 55.6% against pre-production capital of just A$244.5 million — a 4.1x NPV-to-capital ratio.
- Tungsten drives approximately 75% of modelled life-of-mine revenue (A$3,862M of A$5,204M total), positioning Mt Lindsay as a strategic Western supply asset at a time when China controls roughly 79% of global tungsten mining capacity.
- The Base Case uses a tungsten APT price of US$2,500/mtu — approximately 17% below the European benchmark of ~US$3,000/mtu at the time of the study, building conservatism into the headline economics.
- Approximately 92% of the 10.9 Mt production target is derived from Indicated Mineral Resources, with a granted Mining Lease already in place and existing road and port infrastructure at Burnie (~120 km away).
- No Ore Reserves have been declared, the capital cost estimate carries a -25%/+50% accuracy range, and the A$244.5 million pre-production capital has not been secured — the DFS is approximately 18 months away with a Final Investment Decision targeted for mid-2028.
Scoping Study delivers A$1 billion NPV for Mt Lindsay underground development
Critica Limited (ASX: CRI) has released a Scoping Study for its 100%-owned Mt Lindsay Tin-Tungsten Project in north-west Tasmania, evaluating a 1.0 Mtpa underground mining and processing operation. The Base Case generates an after-tax NPV of approximately A$1.01 billion and an after-tax IRR of approximately 55.6%, with an estimated payback period of approximately 1.9 years against pre-production capital of approximately A$244.5 million.
This result marks a material departure from the historical open-pit development concept assessed in the Company’s 2012 Bankable Feasibility Study. The study was prepared by DRA Global and evaluates an owner-operated operation incorporating dual-decline access, longhole open stoping with paste fill, and a tin-tungsten-magnetite processing flowsheet.
Investors should note that this is a preliminary technical and economic assessment. No Ore Reserves have been declared, the capital cost estimate carries an accuracy range of approximately -25%/+50%, and investment decisions should not be made solely on these results. The A$244.5 million pre-production capital requirement has not been secured, and there is no certainty that funding will be available when needed or on acceptable terms.
CEO Jacob Deysel
“The Mt Lindsay Scoping Study represents an important step forward for Critica and a fundamental rethink of how this significant tin-tungsten resource could be developed. By moving from the historical open-pit concept to an underground development pathway, we have outlined a project with a smaller surface footprint and strong Scoping Study-level modelled economics. The Project also benefits from its location within an established Tasmanian mining region, with existing road access, proximity to established hydroelectric power infrastructure and access to export infrastructure at Burnie.
The Base Case generates a pre-tax NPV of approximately A$1.42 billion, a pre-tax IRR of approximately 65% and an after-tax payback period of approximately 1.9 years, against pre-production capital of approximately A$244.5 million.
Mt Lindsay also gives Critica substantial exposure to tungsten, which contributes approximately 75% of modelled Base Case life-of-mine revenue, at a time when secure Western supply of this critical mineral is becoming increasingly strategically important. Importantly, the current Scoping Study economics exclude copper and other potential by-products, which provide potential upside subject to further metallurgical and commercial evaluation.
Our focus now is on systematically advancing the technical, metallurgical, approvals, funding and commercial work required to progress Mt Lindsay toward a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS).”
When big ASX news breaks, our subscribers know first
Key financial outputs at a glance
| Metric | Unit | Base Case Result |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax NPV₈ | A$m | 1,415.6 |
| After-tax NPV₈ | A$m | 1,006.0 |
| Pre-tax IRR | % | 64.9% |
| After-tax IRR | % | 55.6% |
| Payback period (after-tax, pre-finance) | years | ~1.9 |
| Pre-production capital | A$m | 244.5 |
| After-tax NPV / pre-production capital | x | 4.1x |
| Life-of-mine sales revenue | A$m | 5,204.2 |
| Average annual EBITDA | A$m | 268.9 |
| Total LOM capital (incl. sustaining and closure) | A$m | 441.8 |
| Mining schedule | years | 13.5 |
| Material processed | Mt | 10.9 |
All figures are Scoping Study-level estimates and should be read alongside the material assumptions and cautionary statements in the full announcement.
Capital cost breakdown
The A$244.5 million pre-production capital estimate comprises:
- Capitalised mining operating costs: A$39.5M
- Mining capital: A$82.5M
- Plant, TSF (tailings storage facility) and other capital: A$94.0M
- Contingency: A$28.5M
Sustaining capital of A$177.3 million and closure costs of A$20.0 million bring total life-of-mine capital to approximately A$441.8 million.
Why tungsten makes Mt Lindsay strategically significant
Tungsten is the dominant value driver at Mt Lindsay, not tin. Understanding the global supply picture for this metal is central to assessing what the project represents.
Key points for investors:
- Tungsten contributes approximately 75% of modelled Base Case life-of-mine revenue (approximately A$3,862M of the A$5,204M total), making it the primary commercial thesis for the project. Tin contributes approximately 18.4% (A$959M) and magnetite approximately 1.3% (A$378M).
- China controls approximately 79% of global tungsten mining capacity and approximately 85% of APT refining capacity. APT stands for Ammonium Para Tungstate, the benchmark intermediate product used in pricing scheelite concentrate sales.
- S&P Global estimates a 21,000-tonne WO₃ supply gap outside China in 2026 (August 2026), highlighting the scale of the structural supply deficit the Western world faces.
- China’s tungsten export controls, combined with US defence procurement restrictions extending across the supply chain from January 2027, represent a structural shift in global supply rather than a cyclical spike, according to the announcement.
- The European APT benchmark price rose more than 400% between September 2025 and August 2026, based on the Asian Metal price series referenced in the announcement.
- The Base Case assumes a tungsten APT price of US$2,500/mtu, approximately 17% below the referenced European benchmark of approximately US$3,000/mtu at the time of the study, providing a degree of conservatism in the modelled economics.
Underground development: a deliberate departure from the past
The Scoping Study is built around a fundamentally different design philosophy to the open-pit concept evaluated in Critica’s 2012 Bankable Feasibility Study. The selected underground method uses longhole open stoping with paste fill and dual-decline access, with the principal mine portal located within the existing HEC Quarry disturbance area.
This choice is as much a design decision as a mining one. Paste backfill returns a proportion of process tailings underground, reducing the quantity requiring permanent surface storage. The study has also sought to utilise existing disturbed areas and infrastructure corridors to minimise additional surface impact.
The result is a more compact surface footprint than a conventional open-pit approach would require, which is relevant to the environmental approvals pathway as the project advances.
The next major ASX story will hit our subscribers first
Resource foundation, infrastructure and the road to a DFS
What’s already in place
Mt Lindsay enters the feasibility pipeline with a number of material project foundations already established:
- 100% ownership and a granted Mining Lease (7M/2012)
- JORC 2012 Mineral Resource: 19 Mt @ 1.09% SnEq (total project); the Scoping Study uses 10.9 Mt from the Main and No.2 deposits. SnEq (tin equivalent) is a combined grade measure that converts tungsten and magnetite content into a tin-equivalent percentage for reporting purposes.
- Approximately 92% of the production target is derived from Indicated Mineral Resources; approximately 8% from Inferred Mineral Resources
- Located in Tasmania’s established west coast mining district, close to the Renison Bell and Rosebery operations
- Existing road access and proximity to Tasmania’s predominantly renewable hydroelectric power grid
- Export infrastructure at the Port of Burnie, approximately 120 km by road
- More than 88,000 metres of historical diamond drilling across the broader project area
Indicative development timeline
The Company’s current indicative development pathway is as follows. This timeline is explicitly described as indicative only and is subject to successful completion of further studies, environmental and regulatory approvals, product qualification and commercial outcomes, securing the required project funding, and a future Board decision to proceed:
- Scoping Study — complete (September 2026)
- Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) — approximately 18 months
- Final Investment Decision (FID) — indicatively mid-2028
- First Production — indicatively end-2029
Next steps the company is focused on
Critica’s priority workstreams to advance toward a DFS include:
- Resource confidence and mine plan refinement, including block-by-block metallurgical characterisation to support Mineral Resource classification
- Metallurgical and product validation through confirmatory and variability testwork, concentrate qualification and customer engagement
- Environmental approvals pathway confirmation for the underground development concept
- DFS and commercial readiness, covering offtake opportunities, strategic partnerships and funding strategy
On project financing, the Company has not secured any of the A$244.5 million estimated pre-production capital required. The Company is undertaking preliminary engagement with potential offtake and strategic partners and is progressing the production of concentrate samples for product qualification. No binding offtake, strategic investment or project financing arrangements have been entered into.
The Board considers there is a reasonable basis to believe that funding may be obtainable through a combination of equity, project debt, strategic investment, offtake-linked funding, joint venture arrangements or other commercial arrangements. In forming this view, it has had regard to, among other things, the Company’s track record of raising more than A$100 million through Australian capital markets over the past 10 years. There is, however, no certainty that such funding will be available when required or on acceptable terms.
Critica is also progressing a Scoping Study for its Jupiter Rare Earth Project, which is targeted for release shortly.
Critica’s broader critical minerals portfolio extends beyond Mt Lindsay: the Jupiter Rare Earth Project has separately achieved a 95% mass reduction milestone in rare earth processing, a result that signals meaningful progress on a second development-stage asset running in parallel to the Mt Lindsay DFS workstream.
As a reminder: the Scoping Study is a preliminary technical and economic assessment. No Ore Reserves have been declared for Mt Lindsay, and there is no certainty that the production target, forecast financial information or any other outcomes indicated by the study will be achieved. Investors should not make investment decisions based solely on these results.
Don’t Miss the Next ASX Mining Breakout
Big News Blast delivers FREE breaking ASX mining and energy news directly to your inbox within minutes of release, complete with in-depth analysis. Join 30,000+ subscribers already getting the edge on market-moving announcements. Click the “Free Alerts” button at Discovery Alert to start receiving alerts the moment news breaks.