Sandvik Books $29M Kamoa-Kakula Order Despite Production Slump

Sandvik booked a SEK 275 million (approximately US$29 million) underground equipment order from Kamoa Copper S.A. this quarter, covering a 19-machine fleet of trucks and loaders destined for one of the world’s largest copper operations. The contract is sized for a mine chasing more than 500,000 tonnes of annual copper output from 2028.

That ambition sits uncomfortably alongside the present. Kamoa-Kakula’s 2026 production guidance was revised down to 290,000-310,000 tonnes in July 2026, following seismic events, operational disruptions, and industrial action. The owners are not waiting for the production numbers to recover before committing capital. They are deploying equipment now, ahead of the recovery, with deliveries running through Q3 2027 to ensure capacity is in place before the 2028 ramp begins.

Here is what the order composition, its autonomous technology component, and its delivery sequencing tell you about owner confidence in the 500,000-tonne path, and which milestones will confirm whether that confidence is justified.

What Sandvik’s SEK 275 million contract actually covers

The 19-unit order breaks down into 12 Toro TH663i underground trucks and seven Toro LH621i loaders. Two of those loaders will carry AutoMine, Sandvik’s autonomous operating system, equipping them to conduct unmanned loading cycles across designated underground areas without any operator on board.

Deliveries are staggered across three tranches, and the sequencing is deliberate.

The four trucks arriving in Q4 2026 begin building haulage capacity immediately. The bulk delivery of 13 units in Q1 2027 fills out the fleet. The two AutoMine-equipped loaders arrive last, in Q3 2027, timed to be operational ahead of the 2028 production step-change. That final tranche positions the autonomy component as part of the ramp plan, not an afterthought.

Post-delivery, Sandvik’s underground fleet at the site will exceed 100 units. The supplier relationship stretches back to 2019, when Sandvik began operating intelligent mining machines at the complex. This order deepens an already substantial equipment partnership.

Patrick Murphy, President of Mining at Sandvik, commented on the contract at its announcement, underscoring the scale of the autonomous deployment within an established fleet expansion programme.

Why AutoMine at this scale, at this moment, matters

Fitted to a loader, AutoMine allows the machine to complete loading cycles across designated underground sections without a driver present, running continuously through shift changes and in areas where putting personnel underground carries heightened risk.

Underground mining autonomy has historically lagged behind open-pit adoption. The reasons are physical: tunnel geometries are complex and confined, communication and positioning infrastructure is harder to install and maintain underground, and the operating environment imposes constraints that surface operations do not face. Deploying AutoMine-equipped loaders at this stage of Kamoa-Kakula’s expansion is a deliberate commitment, not a trial bolted on after the growth phase is complete.

The AutoMine operational architecture, covering how the system manages positioning, communication, and cycle execution in confined underground geometries, explains why the two loader deployments at Kamoa-Kakula represent a meaningful proving ground for broader fleet autonomy.

The operational benefits extend across several dimensions:

• Continuous loading cycles without shift-change interruptions
• Reduced personnel exposure to hazardous or seismically stressed underground zones
• Performance data collection that provides the operational basis for scaling autonomous deployment across the fleet in future equipment cycles

The positioning of the AutoMine units as the final delivery tranche, rather than the first, is itself a signal. The owners are treating the Q3 2027 deployment as a measured proving ground within the expansion programme. If the units integrate successfully during the ramp phase, the case for broader autonomous adoption across the fleet strengthens materially over the mine’s multi-decade life, bringing long-term improvements to cost per tonne and equipment utilisation.

Sandvik automation suite deployments at other major underground operations in 2026 provide comparative data on integration timelines and productivity outcomes, offering a reference frame for how quickly the AutoMine units at Kamoa-Kakula might deliver measurable cycle-time improvements after commissioning.

Seismic risk and the safety case for driverless loading

Seismic events were a direct factor in the 2026 guidance revision to 290,000-310,000 tonnes. Removing operators from underground zones during periods of seismic stress reduces both the human safety risk and the unplanned downtime that evacuation protocols create. For a mine where seismic disruption has already cost meaningful production tonnage, the ability to maintain loading cycles without personnel underground is a practical operational benefit, not a theoretical one.

The production gap: where Kamoa-Kakula is now versus where it needs to be

The distance between current output and the 2028 target is substantial. Kamoa-Kakula’s original 2026 guidance stood at 380,000-420,000 tonnes of copper in anode or blister. Following seismic events, operational challenges, and industrial action, that was revised to 290,000-330,000 tonnes and then tightened further in July 2026 to 290,000-310,000 tonnes.

The Kamoa-Kakula 2026 performance context, including the sequence of seismic events and industrial action that drove the guidance revision, provides the operational backdrop against which this equipment procurement was committed.

Getting from 310,000 tonnes at the top of 2026 guidance to more than 500,000 tonnes in 2028 requires nearly doubling output in two years. That is not a maintenance trajectory. It demands new mining fronts, fully ramped processing capacity, and the underground fleet to feed both.

The Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex overview published by Ivanhoe Mines confirms the ownership structure, the Phase 3 concentrator commissioning in 2024, and the direct-to-blister smelter reaching first production in late 2025, details that frame the infrastructure context for the incoming Sandvik fleet.

The infrastructure to support that step-change is either in place or under construction:

• Phase 3 concentrator: First ore fed 26 May 2024, nameplate capacity 14.2 Mtpa, enabling more than 600,000 tonnes per annum once fully ramped
• On-site smelter: Heat-up commenced 21 November 2025, first production in late December 2025, designed for 500,000-tonne-per-year capacity with full throughput expected around 2028
• Two new box cuts being advanced at the site to open additional underground mining fronts that the incoming Sandvik fleet has been procured to service

The new 19-unit fleet is not a replacement order. It is a capacity-building procurement arriving on the timeline required if the 2028 ramp is to hold.

What the contract signals about owner conviction in the copper growth case

Committing US$29 million to underground fleet expansion during a guided production trough is a specific kind of capital-allocation decision. The order was booked in Q3 2026, when Kamoa-Kakula was operating under its lowest guidance range since commercial production commenced in July 2021. Deliveries extend to Q3 2027, ensuring the fleet is operational before the 2028 production target needs to be met, not after demand confirms it.

Kamoa-Kakula is jointly owned by Ivanhoe Mines (39.6%), Zijin Mining Group (39.6%), Crystal River Global (0.8%), and the DRC government (20%). The operation is already one of the highest-grade copper mines globally, located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a jurisdiction that functions as a core node in the energy transition metals supply chain.

The copper supply deficit outlook through 2040 frames why Kamoa-Kakula’s ability to sustain output above 500,000 tonnes is not only a project-level milestone but a measurable contribution to global supply at a time when demand from electrification is projected to outpace new mine additions.

As one of the largest planned copper operations globally, Kamoa-Kakula’s ability to reach and sustain output above 500,000 tonnes from 2028 is a meaningful swing factor for medium-term global copper supply. The procurement decision represents actual capital deployed, not a forecast revision.

For investors tracking Ivanhoe Mines, Zijin, or the broader copper supply outlook, this order carries more signal than a production guidance update alone. A guidance revision is a number on a page. A US$29 million equipment deployment, with autonomous loaders sequenced into the delivery schedule, is capital put to work on a specific timeline against a specific production target. It is the most concrete data point available on whether the controlling owners regard the near-term headwinds as temporary and the 500,000-tonne path as executable.

What changes from here, and what the equipment timeline tells investors to watch

The article’s accumulated context converts into four specific milestones that will confirm or complicate the 2028 production thesis:

1. Q1 2027: The 13-unit fleet delivery (second tranche) arrives. This is the bulk of the new capacity. Delays here would compress the timeline for fleet integration ahead of the 2028 ramp.
2. Q3 2027: The two AutoMine-equipped LH621i loaders are commissioned. Successful integration provides the operational data needed to justify broader autonomous deployment in future equipment cycles.
3. 2027 annual production result: Guidance stands at 380,000-420,000 tonnes. Landing within that range would confirm the recovery trajectory from the 2026 trough and validate the step-change required by 2028.
4. Smelter full throughput (around 2028): The on-site smelter reaching design capacity is the final processing bottleneck. Without it, mine-gate production cannot convert to the anode and blister tonnes the 500,000-tonne target is measured against.

The pair of new box cuts progressing at Kamoa-Kakula will open the additional underground mining fronts that the new Sandvik fleet has been sized and timed to supply. Their development progress is a leading indicator for whether the new equipment will be utilised at capacity or sitting ahead of schedule.

If the 2027 production result lands within guidance range and the AutoMine units commission on schedule in Q3 2027, the 2028 target of more than 500,000 tonnes will look materially more credible than it does today. That is the inflection point to watch.

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making investment decisions. Forward-looking production targets and delivery schedules are subject to change based on operational conditions, market developments, and company performance.